CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%

[dspNY]

RCP Clinton vs Trump average just flipped over to Trump (by 0.2%).  Trump's lead in RCP will go up some more this week as some of the early July polls rolls off and the post-bounce polls comes in.  Then this will reverse itself next week.

All true points

[dspNY]

Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.

So you think they souped up their poll?

[dspNY]

I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted.

The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people.

I did some back of the envelope math and the white vote in this poll was 76% so maybe it is souped up a little (2012 white vote was 72%). Additionally Trump leads by 39 with non-college educated whites but Clinton leads by 5 with college educated whites. They are equivalent portions of the white vote (meaning they are about the same amount of the overall electorate) so we should be seeing a Trump +17 with whites instead of Trump +22.

There's how you get his lead. It was souped up a little with far more whites without a college degree and a lower % of POC

[dspNY]

it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc.

I think the English-only vs English-Spanish is going to be key when looking at future polls. You can probably add 1-3 points nationwide to Clinton if it's English-only.

Well if Latino Decisions has her at 76 and other recent polls with Blacks have her at 85-90, then only at 66 with non-whites in this poll is really low. Plus she is ahead with college grad whites. Like I said it is one poll showing him up 3 after his convention...let's check back in after the dnc.

Yeah, if LD has her winning Latinos by 60 (an 80-20 split) and African-Americans go 90-10 like they normally do it requires Trump to win whites at 63-64%