CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The story says that post-convention, Clinton actually gained among white college grads, while Trump made big gains among white non-college grads:

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Those grupps have about 300 RV each with margin of error about 7-10 percentage points.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Week after convention.  He's going to have a small lead.  If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Week after convention.  He's going to have a small lead.  If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry.

Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012.  All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10.

According to RCP:
Bush 2004 was up 7-8,
Obama 2008 was up 3-4,
Obama 2012 was up 3-4.

Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Week after convention.  He's going to have a small lead.  If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry.

Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012.  All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10.

According to RCP:
Bush 2004 was up 7-8,
Obama 2008 was up 3-4,
Obama 2012 was up 3-4.

Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought.

As in 2008 and 2012, the polls show a tied race with a narrow Trump advantage following the RNC.

I still believe the June Pew Poll will maintain its putatively prescient record.

We have to wait. Rasmussen will probably show Trump +14 and change the overage