CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%

[Wiz in Wis]

Honest question... wasn't the previous CNN poll conducted pre-FBI? If so, then the "convention" bump might actually be quite a bit smaller than this would suggest.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce.

[Seriously?]

But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce.

The aggregate is still pending, but I believe this CNN poll specifically shows a 10-point bounce.

The 7/13-16 CNN/ORC poll was Clinton +7.

[Associate Justice PiT]

But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce.

The aggregate is still pending, but I believe this CNN poll specifically shows a 10-point bounce.

The 7/13-16 CNN/ORC poll was Clinton +7.

     Base rates are important here. It's not like Clinton and Trump were tied before the convention.

[DrScholl]

In other news, big education gap….

white college grads:
Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 4%

white non-college grads:
Trump 61%
Clinton 23%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

If these numbers actually pan out, Trump still would lose. He can't lose white college graduates and win, even if he does increase the Republican share of the white non-college graduate vote. I used the demographics calculator from 538 and using the numbers from this poll did not result in a Trump win.

[Seriously?]

But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce.

The aggregate is still pending, but I believe this CNN poll specifically shows a 10-point bounce.

The 7/13-16 CNN/ORC poll was Clinton +7.

     Base rates are important here. It's not like Clinton and Trump were tied before the convention.

Nope, it was about Clinton +3. I'll take that, even if it ends up Trump +1 or Trump +2 in the aggregate.

[Ebsy]

What King remarked in the other place was that CNN/ORC apparently thinks white non-college voter turnout is going to swell to match white college educated turnout. To be frank, that seems extremely unlikely to me, but there is no way to know until election day.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

What King remarked in the other place was that CNN/ORC apparently thinks white non-college voter turnout is going to swell to match white college educated turnout. To be frank, that seems extremely unlikely to me, but there is no way to know until election day.

From my recollection, it was roughly 50-50 in many GOP primaries (and in fairness, some were 60-40 in exceptional states). I don't know what primaries were in the past, but that seems quite a bit more than you'd expect in a GOP primary. Hard to draw conclusions because many are independents in the former category and Democrats in the latter, but within the GOP for low turnout elections, it was quite strong. I'd need to look at it deeper.

In other news, big education gap….

white college grads:
Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 4%

white non-college grads:
Trump 61%
Clinton 23%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

If these numbers actually pan out, Trump still would lose. He can't lose white college graduates and win, even if he does increase the Republican share of the white non-college graduate vote.

Learn math.

[The Vorlon]

Trump favorability rating up to 46%.

"up" to 46%... tells us how bad things really are....

[MK]

These are great numbers especially the favorable numbers moving for trump.   I've often said that all Trump has to do is slightly convince people that he can actually be Presidential.  Once that happens then Hillary is toast.  Then again Hillary should get a bounce as well.    The Hillary hacks on here are disgusting.

[IceSpear]

I bet this poll caused Xanax stock to shoot up drastically.

[Mr. Morden]

What King remarked in the other place was that CNN/ORC apparently thinks white non-college voter turnout is going to swell to match white college educated turnout.

I thought this was a poll of registered voters?  In which case, the assumptions are about the pool of registered voters in the USA, not the turnout in November, no?

[Cruzcrew]

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.

Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Agreed. I'm not going to vote for Trump but I find myself increasingly wanting him to win for no other reason than to shut up the self-entitled Hillary hacks who act as though anyone who disagrees with them is an evil stupid racist doodoo head and that Trump is some sort of modern day Hitler rather than just another asshole politician who won't do anything. That's the problem with this lesser evil nonsense ... the lesser evil is subjective from voter to voter. Embedding in your mind that its us vs them and that them is 100% objectively super dee duper evil is just as harmful as any divisive rhetoric from Trump or Hillary. Both candidates have sh**tty positions on protecting our rights and fixing the economy. A lot of voters are voting for the candidate they think will be less sh**tty. I think that's the wrong way to vote, but I'm not gonna lie and claim that anyone who supports a candidate I don't like is something something embedding racism something something systemic privilege; especially since both candidates are running racially tinged campaigns. If hacks for a corrupt party system stopped pretending that they possessed some sort of moral high ground we may not have even been thrust into this match-up in the first place. To quote the dumb Bush: We need to stop judging those who disagree by their worse examples and stop judging those who agree by our own best intentions.

As much as I think Trump is a douchebag, these Hillary hacks don't realize the absurd partisan fashion in which they whine drives more people who find such an attitude ridiculous to end up supporting Trump.

[Lachi]

Well that's good news. Post-convention bounce. DNC already hasn't started well.

And you thought the RNC first night was better?

[Gass3268]

This poll is starting to feel a bit like an outlier.