CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%

[psychprofessor]

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.

Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values.

Forget the top lines in this poll. Trump is not going to win if he loses college educated whites; blacks, latinos and women. His coalition is a winning one for 1980, not 2016.

As for this poll, it's just one poll with strange cross tabs and not enough information in some of them. However they got to the top line is their decision, but when you look at the breakdowns Hillary is fine. Check in with them again after the DNC...something tells me you'll see the women #'s and POC #'s significantly increase.

[Seriously?]

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.

Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values.

Forget the top lines in this poll. Trump is not going to win if he loses college educated whites; blacks, latinos and women. His coalition is a winning one for 1980, not 2016.

As for this poll, it's just one poll with strange cross tabs and not enough information in some of them. However they got to the top line is their decision, but when you look at the breakdowns Hillary is fine. Check in with them again after the DNC...something tells me you'll see the women #'s and POC #'s significantly increase.

You mean Hillary! is going to get a bounce from her convention? No way.

Look. I am willing to look at this as Trump and the Republicans having their convention, getting a bounce from it and taking the lead. It's normal. Barring a complete disaster, Hillary! should move the needle back a few points after this week.

With that said, I wish we could just bury the narrative that Trump is such a bad, evil Republican candidate that he was never going to lead and that he's only leading because X, Y and Z. Obviously, he's performing as a Republican should after a convention.

[Classic Conservative]

Trumps winning in the suburbs!!!

[Gass3268]

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.

Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values.

Forget the top lines in this poll. Trump is not going to win if he loses college educated whites; blacks, latinos and women. His coalition is a winning one for 1980, not 2016.

As for this poll, it's just one poll with strange cross tabs and not enough information in some of them. However they got to the top line is their decision, but when you look at the breakdowns Hillary is fine. Check in with them again after the DNC...something tells me you'll see the women #'s and POC #'s significantly increase.

You mean Hillary! is going to get a bounce from her convention? No way.

Look. I am willing to look at this as Trump and the Republicans having their convention, getting a bounce from it and taking the lead. It's normal. Barring a complete disaster, Hillary! should move the needle back a few points after this week.

With that said, I wish we could just bury the narrative that Trump is such a bad, evil Republican candidate that he was never going to lead and that he's only leading because X, Y and Z. Obviously, he's performing as a Republican should after a convention.

This is reasonable.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Except he is legitimately a bad, evil candidate. That Americans are willing to vote for him doesn't change that fact, and it's not s good reason for why he could lose.

[Beet]

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.

Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values.

This is true, but it still wouldn't hurt to be a little more compassionate.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.

Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values.

This is true, but it still wouldn't hurt to be a little more compassionate.

Maybe you don't belong to a minority group (I don't know), but it actually could hurt to show compassion. I'm not in the business of legitimizing bigotry or bigoted rhetoric. These people are, and it hurts people who could find themselves on the other end of it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hillary really crapped in her hat by picking Tim Kaine.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.

Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Agreed. I'm not going to vote for Trump but I find myself increasingly wanting him to win for no other reason than to shut up the self-entitled Hillary hacks who act as though anyone who disagrees with them is an evil stupid racist doodoo head and that Trump is some sort of modern day Hitler rather than just another asshole politician who won't do anything. That's the problem with this lesser evil nonsense ... the lesser evil is subjective from voter to voter. Embedding in your mind that its us vs them and that them is 100% objectively super dee duper evil is just as harmful as any divisive rhetoric from Trump or Hillary. Both candidates have sh**tty positions on protecting our rights and fixing the economy. A lot of voters are voting for the candidate they think will be less sh**tty. I think that's the wrong way to vote, but I'm not gonna lie and claim that anyone who supports a candidate I don't like is something something embedding racism something something systemic privilege; especially since both candidates are running racially tinged campaigns. If hacks for a corrupt party system stopped pretending that they possessed some sort of moral high ground we may not have even been thrust into this match-up in the first place. To quote the dumb Bush: We need to stop judging those who disagree by their worse examples and stop judging those who agree by our own best intentions.

[Ronnie]

Polls go up and polls go down.  It's pretty normal for the Republican candidate to pull ahead after the party's convention.  Hillary will move ahead after the Dem convention next week.

I'll be convinced the race is competitive if Hillary is not ahead outside the margin of error after her convention bounce subsides.

[jaichind]

Polls go up and polls go down.  It's pretty normal for the Republican candidate to pull ahead after the party's convention.  Hillary will move ahead after the Dem convention next week.

I'll be convinced the race is competitive if Hillary is not ahead outside the margin of error after her convention bounce subsides.

Yep, this sounds fair.

[evergreenarbor]

Trump got a decent bounce after a convention that was heavily criticized by the media and Atlas. I see two possibilities:

1: The media and Atlas badly misread how the public perceived the convention. Maybe the public doesn't care about plagiarism or former candidates getting booed off stage - or maybe most people just weren't paying attention to anything but Trump's speech.

2: The content of a convention doesn't really matter now that polarization is as strong as it is. A great RNC would have led to the same bounce as a terrible RNC. If this is true, Hillary should get a small bounce after the DNC regardless of what happens.

[Ljube]

Panicking over post convention polls.
Let's just wait for the Dem convention to finish and for the polls to stabilize before we can say anything more definitive about the state of the race.

The fundamentals of the race are clear, though:

1) Trump has the working class vote (not just white working class).
2) Hillary has the educated whites.
3) Hillary has the minorities, but not at Obama's levels.

These make for a slight Hillary advantage, at the moment.

[EliteLX]

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[Associate Justice PiT]

But you guys told me the RNC was a disaster and Trump would get a nega-bounce!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

1) Trump has the working class vote (not just white working class).

False. Education and wealth/class are not all that related, especially in this election.

[Ebsy]

Interestingly, Clinton actually gained with college educated whites in this poll.

[Tender Branson]

Not much a surprise ...

[Fargobison]

Interestingly, Clinton actually gained with college educated whites in this poll.

That is probably the main thing I am going to take away from it. A convention with a heavily scripted speech was a scenario where I thought Trump would gain a bit.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Well that's good news. Post-convention bounce. DNC already hasn't started well.

[Xing]

*Yawn* Wake me up when it's August.

[DrScholl]

That's pretty weak for a post convention. +3 is not necessarily what we see post convention, usually it's about +10. The Democratic Convention will be more positive and it won't take that much to wipe out +3.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

That's pretty weak for a post convention. +3 is not necessarily what we see post convention, usually it's about +10. The Democratic Convention will be more positive and it won't take that much to wipe out +3.

I appreciate your optimism, but...

[ProgressiveCanadian]

But you guys told me the RNC was a disaster and Trump would get a nega-bounce!

[Reginald]

Well the silver lining in this, if it's true that the convention was this successful, is that Ted Cruz massively miscalculated and really shot himself in the foot going forward. We can only hope!