CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%
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  CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%  (Read 3859 times)
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #25 on: July 25, 2016, 08:01:48 AM »

Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.
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dspNY
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« Reply #26 on: July 25, 2016, 08:02:35 AM »

Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.

So you think they souped up their poll?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #27 on: July 25, 2016, 08:05:05 AM »

Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.

So you think they souped up their poll?

The "Hillary beating Sanders by 4 points" number makes me a tad suspicious. Still, no denying Trump is getting a bump.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #28 on: July 25, 2016, 08:18:50 AM »

Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.

So you think they souped up their poll?

They are nearly as bad as Fox News forgetting Rand Paul and showing Jeb Bush ahead of Hillary with Trump trailing massively before flipping. I'm not buying news organizations who want storylines.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #29 on: July 25, 2016, 08:29:12 AM »

I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted.

The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people.
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dspNY
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« Reply #30 on: July 25, 2016, 08:32:44 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2016, 08:37:03 AM by dspNY »

I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted.

The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people.

I did some back of the envelope math and the white vote in this poll was 76% so maybe it is souped up a little (2012 white vote was 72%). Additionally Trump leads by 39 with non-college educated whites but Clinton leads by 5 with college educated whites. They are equivalent portions of the white vote (meaning they are about the same amount of the overall electorate) so we should be seeing a Trump +17 with whites instead of Trump +22.

There's how you get his lead. It was souped up a little with far more whites without a college degree and a lower % of POC
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #31 on: July 25, 2016, 08:40:16 AM »

I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted.

The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people.

But Hillary is not comfortably ahead of minorities at the CNN/ORC July 22-24 Poll.

Minorities Voters(Non-White Voters)
Election 2012: Obama 80% Romney 18% Other 2%.  Spread: Obama +62%
CNN/ORC July 22-24: Hillary 61% TRUMP 21% Johnson 11% Stein 3%.  Spread: Hillary +40%

[url]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf][url]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf
[/url]

 
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afleitch
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« Reply #32 on: July 25, 2016, 08:40:35 AM »

I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted.

The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people.

If we look at Trump v Clinton directly Trump has 62% of the white vote. Romney got 60%. Clinton gets 76% of the non white vote. Obama also got 76%. If turnout is the same as 2012 then it's 51-49 Hillary. If we look at white college grads Clinton is at 52 when Obama got 44. On non grads it's Trump on 69 while Romney got 62. Numbers like that lock Clinton into the Obama 08/12 states (FL VA CO etc) but perhaps give Trump a shot at OH PA.  The internals don't really point to a different picture than what we've seen all summer.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #33 on: July 25, 2016, 08:47:37 AM »

Well, just a brief post-convention surge for Drumpf that I expect to fade quickly in the next few days.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #34 on: July 25, 2016, 08:59:30 AM »

Week after convention.  He's going to have a small lead.  If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry.


Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012.  All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10.
According to RCP:
Bush 2004 was up 7-8,
Obama 2008 was up 3-4,
Obama 2012 was up 3-4.

Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: July 25, 2016, 09:03:14 AM »

This poll did not have a Spanish option, the CBS poll (which shows essentially a tie) does.

I think that is something to look for as we go down the stretch.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #36 on: July 25, 2016, 09:03:23 AM »

Week after convention.  He's going to have a small lead.  If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry.


Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012.  All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10.
According to RCP:
Bush 2004 was up 7-8,
Obama 2008 was up 3-4,
Obama 2012 was up 3-4.

Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought.


As in 2008 and 2012, the polls show a tied race with a narrow Trump advantage following the RNC.

I still believe the June Pew Poll will maintain its putatively prescient record.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #37 on: July 25, 2016, 09:04:04 AM »

it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: July 25, 2016, 09:06:59 AM »

it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc.

I think the English-only vs English-Spanish is going to be key when looking at future polls. You can probably add 1-3 points nationwide to Clinton if it's English-only.
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windjammer
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« Reply #39 on: July 25, 2016, 09:09:16 AM »

Well,
Trump undeniably got a boost.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #40 on: July 25, 2016, 09:10:15 AM »

it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc.

I think the English-only vs English-Spanish is going to be key when looking at future polls. You can probably add 1-3 points nationwide to Clinton if it's English-only.

Well if Latino Decisions has her at 76 and other recent polls with Blacks have her at 85-90, then only at 66 with non-whites in this poll is really low. Plus she is ahead with college grad whites. Like I said it is one poll showing him up 3 after his convention...let's check back in after the dnc.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #41 on: July 25, 2016, 09:12:33 AM »

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #42 on: July 25, 2016, 09:13:21 AM »

Not ideal.

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.
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dspNY
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« Reply #43 on: July 25, 2016, 09:14:13 AM »

it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc.

I think the English-only vs English-Spanish is going to be key when looking at future polls. You can probably add 1-3 points nationwide to Clinton if it's English-only.

Well if Latino Decisions has her at 76 and other recent polls with Blacks have her at 85-90, then only at 66 with non-whites in this poll is really low. Plus she is ahead with college grad whites. Like I said it is one poll showing him up 3 after his convention...let's check back in after the dnc.

Yeah, if LD has her winning Latinos by 60 (an 80-20 split) and African-Americans go 90-10 like they normally do it requires Trump to win whites at 63-64%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #44 on: July 25, 2016, 09:20:58 AM »

The story says that post-convention, Clinton actually gained among white college grads, while Trump made big gains among white non-college grads:

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Maybe non-college white people were watching the Roman circus spectacle, and others were watching something else.

The question: will the non-college whites vote heavily in November?

College-educated whites vote, and they are more likely to change the minds of white people with no college degree to not vote for Trump than non-college-educated people are likely to convince college-educated whites to vote for Trump. College-educated people are generally much more capable of persuading people than are those who did not attend college.  

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #45 on: July 25, 2016, 09:24:36 AM »

Week after convention.  He's going to have a small lead.  If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry.


Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012.  All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10.
According to RCP:
Bush 2004 was up 7-8,
Obama 2008 was up 3-4,
Obama 2012 was up 3-4.

Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought.


As in 2008 and 2012, the polls show a tied race with a narrow Trump advantage following the RNC.

I still believe the June Pew Poll will maintain its putatively prescient record.
We have to wait. Rasmussen will probably show Trump +14 and change the overage Cheesy
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Seriously?
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« Reply #46 on: July 25, 2016, 09:36:09 AM »

But you guys told me the RNC was a disaster and Trump would get a nega-bounce!
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #47 on: July 25, 2016, 09:43:12 AM »

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.
Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #48 on: July 25, 2016, 09:56:54 AM »

Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.
Maybe the obnoxious, elitist attitudes helped drive poor whites to Trump?

Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values.
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afleitch
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« Reply #49 on: July 25, 2016, 10:01:55 AM »

Off topic, can we dispense with the idea that being 'poor' automatically makes you the salt of the earth or somehow how absolves you from being an asshole with assholish opinions just because you're poor and 'don't know any better'. It's patronising.
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