Reuters/Ipsos Natl: Clinton +4
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos Natl: Clinton +4  (Read 1501 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: July 21, 2016, 02:15:50 PM »
« edited: July 21, 2016, 02:18:50 PM by Likely Voter »

1232 Registered Voters ( 7/16-7/20)


Clinton    40%    
Trump    36%    
Neither/Other    13%    
Wouldn't vote    3%    
Don't know/Refused    8%    


4 way
Clinton    39%    
Trump    35%    
Johnson    7%
Stein    3%
Neither/Other    5%    
Wouldn't vote    3%    
Don't know/Refused    8%    

 
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical72016.pdf
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2016, 02:34:30 PM »

Interesting that the same day Rassy comes back to earth, so does Reuters.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2016, 02:35:38 PM »

Nether both candidates above 45%? into the trash lol
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Seriously?
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2016, 02:48:09 PM »

1232 Registered Voters ( 7/16-7/20)


Clinton    40%    
Trump    36%    
Neither/Other    13%    
Wouldn't vote    3%    
Don't know/Refused    8%    


4 way
Clinton    39%    
Trump    35%    
Johnson    7%
Stein    3%
Neither/Other    5%    
Wouldn't vote    3%    
Don't know/Refused    8%    

 
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical72016.pdf
At what point do we combine Reuters, LA Times, etc into a tracking thread.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2016, 02:53:06 PM »

As I noted the week press releases from Reuters/Ipsos count as new polls with new samples. I am treating them like Huffpollster and RCP.  This poll is like NBC/Survey Monkey in that they announce new toplines weekly. 

There is a site where you can dive into daily data, but they don't release that data as new, also that data lags behind the official releases by a day.

So these polls will be done weekly.  If people want to dive into the daily data stuff I guess that should be done in the latest Reuters poll thread up until a new weekly PDF release comes from Reuters.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2016, 04:51:39 PM »

1232 Registered Voters ( 7/16-7/20)


Clinton    40%    
Trump    36%    
Neither/Other    13%    
Wouldn't vote    3%    
Don't know/Refused    8%    


4 way
Clinton    39%    
Trump    35%    
Johnson    7%
Stein    3%
Neither/Other    5%    
Wouldn't vote    3%    
Don't know/Refused    8%    

 
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingCorePolitical72016.pdf
At what point do we combine Reuters, LA Times, etc into a tracking thread.

yes please.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2016, 05:32:32 PM »

At what point do we combine Reuters, LA Times, etc into a tracking thread.

yes please.
[/quote]

It's not up to me, but I'd rather we not do that so that I can constantly update the thread title with today's results.  That way, we know the state of the poll at a quick glance.  Combining the threads wouldn't allow that.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2016, 05:56:31 PM »

For now let's leave it as the USC poll has its own daily tracking thread and the Reuters poll is posted weekly when they issue their press release. If someone wants to track the daily data from Reuters post in in the latest weekly poll but remember the daily data lags behind. In other words new data wont be out for two days.

One thing definitely don't want to see is people going to the Reuters site and taking snapshots and posting those as brand new polls in between the weekly official Reuters releases.

If we end up with a lot of daily tracking polls maybe we will reassess then with a single sticky.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2016, 01:07:31 AM »

Good to see they finally stopped whatever they were smoking when they had Hillary+13 or something.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2016, 02:08:12 AM »

As of yesterday, it's:

35% Trump (July 14: Clinton+12)
34% Clinton
  6% Johnson
  3% Stein

Link

And:

41% Clinton (July 14: Clinton+15)
38% Trump

Link
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2016, 04:03:46 AM »

Did they just totally change their voter models or something?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2016, 06:01:00 AM »

Did they just totally change their voter models or something?
They would inform, if they did, wouldn't they?
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2016, 11:01:19 AM »

Yep, Trump's getting his bounce. Let's not overreact.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2016, 11:57:32 AM »

The weekly release sent out by Reuters and used by the polling sites is RV. If you want to see apples to apples comparison to that and the OP, then the RV filter (not the LV filter) should be applied. 

Today's RV numbers are...

(7/18-7/22)

2-way
Clinton    40%    (-)
Trump    36%    (-)

4 way
Clinton    38%    (-1)
Trump    36%    (+1)
Johnson    6%    (-1)
Stein    3%
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Seriously?
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2016, 01:06:52 PM »

LV numbers have flipped the opposite way of RV. It used to be net Hillary, now it's net Trump

2-way
Clinton 41%
Trump 39%
Neither/Other 12%
Refused 7%
Won't Vote 2%

4-way
Clinton 39% (38.7%)
Trump 38% (38.1%)
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%
Don't know/Refused 8%
Neither/Other 4%
Wouldn't Vote 1%
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swf541
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« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2016, 02:55:13 PM »

Interesting, so i guess Trump built some enthusiasm from the base but didnt actually gain much in terms of number of supporters, instead some of the republicans who were hesitant to back him backed him etc.
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« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2016, 02:57:32 PM »

Interesting, so i guess Trump built some enthusiasm from the base but didnt actually gain much in terms of number of supporters, instead some of the republicans who were hesitant to back him backed him etc.
Remember, it's a tracking poll, so the numbers are lagging a bit.
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swf541
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« Reply #17 on: July 23, 2016, 03:03:21 PM »

Interesting, so i guess Trump built some enthusiasm from the base but didnt actually gain much in terms of number of supporters, instead some of the republicans who were hesitant to back him backed him etc.
Remember, it's a tracking poll, so the numbers are lagging a bit.

Yea I know, its just what i think the convention will end up doing.  It ended up not hurting him and helped unify a bit but i dont believe it appealed to a wider grouper.
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« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2016, 03:35:12 PM »

Interesting, so i guess Trump built some enthusiasm from the base but didnt actually gain much in terms of number of supporters, instead some of the republicans who were hesitant to back him backed him etc.
Remember, it's a tracking poll, so the numbers are lagging a bit.

Yea I know, its just what i think the convention will end up doing.  It ended up not hurting him and helped unify a bit but i dont believe it appealed to a wider grouper.
That's a fair assessment. It probably helped galzanize a lot of the #nevertrump back home.
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swf541
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« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2016, 03:51:11 PM »

Interesting, so i guess Trump built some enthusiasm from the base but didnt actually gain much in terms of number of supporters, instead some of the republicans who were hesitant to back him backed him etc.
Remember, it's a tracking poll, so the numbers are lagging a bit.

Yea I know, its just what i think the convention will end up doing.  It ended up not hurting him and helped unify a bit but i dont believe it appealed to a wider grouper.
That's a fair assessment. It probably helped galzanize a lot of the #nevertrump back home.

Yea, I agree with that assessment, I expect something similar with the DNC and the Sanders people or more centrist dems not backing Clinton atm.

There still is some nevertrump people, Cruz's non endorsement is very important to the remaining Cruz hold outs.  The ones i know seem to be voting for Johnson in protest, I am really curious how well Johnson ends up doing in the end.
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afleitch
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« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2016, 08:56:15 AM »

The demographic drill down data is quite good here, but there's nothing to suggest it's appropriately weighted. Only 3% of the total responses are from Hispanic voters. By contrast, 4% of the responses are from Asian voters.

Looking at the post convention bounce, Trump has went from slightly behind Clinton amongst 'Born Agains' to 17 points ahead and is slightly ahead with Catholics.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: July 24, 2016, 09:51:14 AM »

The demographic drill down data is quite good here, but there's nothing to suggest it's appropriately weighted. Only 3% of the total responses are from Hispanic voters. By contrast, 4% of the responses are from Asian voters.

Looking at the post convention bounce, Trump has went from slightly behind Clinton amongst 'Born Agains' to 17 points ahead and is slightly ahead with Catholics.
Is there a link to the crosstabs?
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