Did Cruz's non-endorsement help or hinder his 2020 presidential aspirations?
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  Did Cruz's non-endorsement help or hinder his 2020 presidential aspirations?
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Help
 
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Hinder
 
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Author Topic: Did Cruz's non-endorsement help or hinder his 2020 presidential aspirations?  (Read 1169 times)
Ronnie
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« on: July 21, 2016, 12:50:29 AM »

Tough one, but I voted help.  Cruz positioned himself to emerge as the person who was "right all along" when Trump loses in a landslide.  The only question is whether he will successfully win over enough of the Trump loyalists who (rightly) see him as a backstabber after tonight.

Vote & Discuss
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HisGrace
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2016, 12:53:57 AM »

Agree with the "right all along" angle and he's getting overwhelmingly positive press out of it. Even people who didn't like/trust him before see him as having principles now.

Like this primary was about nominating someone not like Romney, the next one will be about nominating someone not like Trump, so not having endorsed him will be a huge advantage.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2016, 12:56:58 AM »

Probably hinder.  It reinforced Trump's Lyin' Ted stereotype about him.  Cruz lied when he made a pledge to support the nominee.

But four years is 48 eternities in politics, so who knows, really?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2016, 12:58:44 AM »

Made many fans tonite, but also made many enemies.  Helps and hinders.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2016, 01:00:14 AM »

Help.
Basically, he will say ..... "I told you this dumba** bigot couldn't win."
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2016, 01:01:17 AM »

It will hurt his ability to appeal outside his narrow section of the GOP base. Your average Republican has already been behind Trump for months and they will see it as a betrayal.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2016, 01:15:55 AM »

Hinder. He pissed off the rank-and-file Republican base and the donor class at the same time. To me, his speech went from a promising speech on conservatism to a speech where he looked like a WWE villain in the matter of a few seconds.

If he endorses Trump instead, he's the winner of the night. Instead, he came off as a sore loser and was BOO-TED off stage.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2016, 01:20:22 AM »

Hinder in the primary by pissing off all the Trumpistas. Help in the general by making him look like he has principles and distancing himself from Trump. Unfortunately probably hinder on balance, since the former effect will be stronger than the latter. There's a pretty good chance that he just won my vote, though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2016, 02:04:01 AM »

Hinder in the primary by pissing off all the Trumpistas.

Serious question: How many Trumpistas will there still be three years from now?  For me, it remains an open question as to how both the GOP primary electorate and movement conservative elites write the revisionist history of Clinton's victory this year, should she win.  I'm not sure how much attention will be paid to who supported Trump and who didn't.  It's possible that Trump will simply be retroactively written off as an interloper to the party who blundered away a winnable election, and people won't want to talk about him anymore by the time the 2020 primaries are upon us.
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2016, 02:08:07 AM »

Hinder cause he lost his tea party base who now loves trump, and the establishment and moderate part hate him anyway. Cruz will be primaried in 2018 and he deserves it for pandering so much in his senate term.
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UWS
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2016, 05:41:04 AM »

He surely risks to keep being called Lyin' Ted for all his political life.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2016, 05:42:52 AM »

If Trump loses big to Clinton, it will help him. If Trump becomes president and remains popular with his base (likely) then hinder.
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NHI
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2016, 07:07:02 AM »

Cruz will never be President.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2016, 08:46:00 AM »

Help.

His brand is uncompromising conservative. Endorsing Trump would leave an opening for someone else to get votes from Republicans who really hate Trump next time around (IE- Ben Sasse).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2016, 09:03:19 AM »

Neither. Or too early to tell. It's a long way until 2020 and a lot can happen. Remember Chris Christie not running in 2012 since he thought that 2016 would fit better for him? Same could happen with Cruz in 2020. Or simply a redux of Santorum or the Huck, these two dudes went absolutely nowhere this time. Or Cruz will win the nomination under an “I told you so” slogan, arguing the GOP only lost three election because they didn’t nominate a real conservative. Everything possible; even that he gets primaried in the 2018 senate race, though I regard this as unlikely. We’ll see. It is just interesting that GOP sources say that he’ll run even if the Trumpster ends up as prez this time.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2016, 09:34:41 AM »

Hinder. If Hillary wins, he'd be hated by the base (which is already getting fired up) for the man who helped to made her presidency possible. And if Trump wins, there's no way he's successfully challenging the incumbent.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2016, 09:40:25 AM »

I'm COMPLETELY unconvinced that "Trumpistas" will exist post-Trump.  They're obsessed with his style and the "movement" he's inspiring.  It's completely attached to the man, the myth and the legend that is Donald Trump.  As he said, he could shoot someone in the middle of the street and not lose any support.

Despite Fuzzy Bear and Derpsh**t dreaming of a GOP completely made up of working class Whites who hate free trade, that simply is but a subset of the party, heck even a subset of Trump's support.  An endorsement of Trump this season has certainly not been an endorsement of all of his views, IMO.

To answer the OP, it will help.
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PeteB
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« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2016, 12:50:23 PM »

Hinder - big time. And I say this as someone who believes that Trump Never should have been even a GOP candidate, much less the GOP nominee.

Cruz had only three options:

1. Skip the Convention and quietly show what he felt (aka do a Kasich).
2. Attend the Convention and mount a fight from Day one, asking to be put into nomination, etc. (he would have lost, but then he would at least have shown a fighting spirit and strength of character and energized his supporters) and
3. Endorse Trump (aka do a Rubio)

He chose a fourth option which looks weasel-y and will win him few friends but many enemies. And the fact that he seems to have misled Trump's people about the endorsement will not help his character story in the future.
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Ljube
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« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2016, 01:43:08 PM »

Hinder big time.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2016, 03:06:03 PM »

It seems to me that Cruz is making a bet that a lot of the Trump primary supporters will simply not show up to vote in the primaries in 2020 and it will be a more normal process. Trump did bring in a lot of voters who were general election Republican voters (including many R leaning indies) but tended not to vote in primaries. Cruz wants a do over and go back to his plan of dominating with the evangelicals and riding them to victory with early wins in IA and SC and then sweeping the south on Super Tuesday.   

It is noteworthy that one of the things his delegates were pushing for at the RNC was to get all GOP primaries and caucuses closed. They failed in that effort but that didn't change his speech. He just better hope those Trump primary voters don't show up or have a short memory.   
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PeteB
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« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2016, 03:14:04 PM »

It seems to me that Cruz is making a bet that a lot of the Trump primary supporters will simply not show up to vote in the primaries in 2020 and it will be a more normal process. Trump did bring in a lot of voters who were general election Republican voters (including many R leaning indies) but tended not to vote in primaries. Cruz wants a do over and go back to his plan of dominating with the evangelicals and riding them to victory with early wins in IA and SC and then sweeping the south on Super Tuesday.   

It is noteworthy that one of the things his delegates were pushing for at the RNC was to get all GOP primaries and caucuses closed. They failed in that effort but that didn't change his speech. He just better hope those Trump primary voters don't show up or have a short memory.   

And in fact, Cruz probably missed his golden opportunity. He could have traded his endorsement of Trump for Trump's agreement to close the primaries, sit pretty and win, whatever happens in November
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Spark
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« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2016, 12:29:59 AM »

Hinder. He went against his word and his nickname still remains true. It just reinforces the notion that he is an untrustworthy politician and besides he won't have a chance in 2020 anyways.
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Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: July 22, 2016, 01:47:30 AM »

It seems to me that Cruz is making a bet that a lot of the Trump primary supporters will simply not show up to vote in the primaries in 2020 and it will be a more normal process. Trump did bring in a lot of voters who were general election Republican voters (including many R leaning indies) but tended not to vote in primaries. Cruz wants a do over and go back to his plan of dominating with the evangelicals and riding them to victory with early wins in IA and SC and then sweeping the south on Super Tuesday.   

It is noteworthy that one of the things his delegates were pushing for at the RNC was to get all GOP primaries and caucuses closed. They failed in that effort but that didn't change his speech. He just better hope those Trump primary voters don't show up or have a short memory.   

And in fact, Cruz probably missed his golden opportunity. He could have traded his endorsement of Trump for Trump's agreement to close the primaries, sit pretty and win, whatever happens in November

Cruz doesn't have the social skills necessary to forge such an agreement.
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