GA 2006 Congressional Elections

[Adam Griffin]

Does anybody foresee a majority of congressmen from Georgia being Democrats after the 2006 elections?

2002:
8 Republicans
5 Democrats

2004:
7 Republicans
6 Democrats*

*4 of these candidates ran unopposed.

Could perhaps a challenger to any of these 4 districts (Districts 1, 6, 7, & 10) produce different results? These are fairly strong Republican areas, but are the congressmen in these districts simply being elected due to a lack of competition?

[A18]

The GOP may very well undo the Democratic gerrymander, in which case I imagine the Republicans will expand their majority.

[minionofmidas]

It might. They didn't replace it with another evil gerrymander of their own, but passed a genuinely much better map...which means that there are no certain gains.
But another Democrat pickup? Stop dreaming.

[nclib]

If there's no Republican re-gerrymander, Dems could conceivably pick up one seat (CD11), but they have no chance in 1, 6, 7 and 10, which are all overwhelmingly Republican districts.

[Q]

Wow - another D-GA!

I posted my thoughts on the implications of this year's GOP redistricting on the 2006 elections here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=17588.0

I'd give it a 60% chance of being 7R, 6D again, with the same 13 reps, and a 40% chance of being 8R, 5D (with Barrow losing to Burns in their rematch).

I think the main effect of this mid-decade redistricting will be not to take out incumbent Dems, but to solidify the GOP incumbents.  The new districts should be 7 solid R, 4 solid D, 1 strong D, and 1 lean D.  So only a scandal or perhaps an open seat with mismatched candidates favoring the Dems could unseat any GOP incumbent.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I can't see Burns winning a rematch unless Barrow does something really stupid, and as a freshman representative of the minority party, Barrow will have to go very far out of his way to do something that stupid,

[minionofmidas]

I can't see Burns winning a rematch unless Barrow does something really stupid, and as a freshman representative of the minority party, Barrow will have to go very far out of his way to do something that stupid,

...if the gerrymander doesn't pass, that is (what's the status there?). They're moving his base - Athens - out of the district, quite rightly too I should add, but of course it's hard on Barrow.

[Q]

I can't see Burns winning a rematch unless Barrow does something really stupid, and as a freshman representative of the minority party, Barrow will have to go very far out of his way to do something that stupid,

It won't be the same district as in 2004.  Same number (12), but the area is changing.  Athens/Clarke County, Barrow's home base and the most liberal part of the district, will no longer be in the 12th.  It'll be a more Republican district this time around.

Edit: Lewis posted while I was typing this, and he's right.  The new maps did pass.  They're subject to Civil Rights review, but they'll probably be approved.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis posted while I was typing this, and he's right.  The new maps did pass.  They're subject to Civil Rights review, but they'll probably be approved.

Okay thanks.
Btw, re your signature: No we can't. What have you been smoking?