Internal poll megathread

[Seriously?]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

McCain's pollster, Trump probably leads

[Seriously?]

Seems a bit high

Of course it is, this thing is basically a Democrat push poll for a left-leaning group.

I think I'd take Marquette over "Global Strategy Group" any day of the week.

[Seriously?]

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).

Evidence?

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win

Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...

The problem with internals is that you don't know which internal you are getting. The one based on the assumption of max turnout of the party that sanctioned the internal or the real number.

It's the probing of the "what if" factor that is generally the problem.

We have no idea of what the baseline assumptions are.

[Seriously?]

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

I don't think anything a partisan on either side of the aisle should be taken seriously when it comes to electoral predictions. Of course their candidate is going to win.

[Seriously?]

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

John Harwood. You may as well be quoting Baghdad Bob. Complete utter DNC shill. Wikileaks proved it.

[Seriously?]

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.

Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.