Internal poll megathread

[dspNY]

Since it's a repub internal add 5 points to the dems

[dspNY]

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

[dspNY]

The DCCC says that Clinton is beating Trump by 14 points in FL-7 (northeast of Orlando) and 24 points in FL-26 (most of Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties)

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/763376173296525312

That would indicate a Clinton lead of at least 5 points statewide

[dspNY]

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right

375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.

That's the GOP incumbent congressman's internal showing Clinton up 6 in his district. Confirms that Trump is only leading by single digits in KS

[dspNY]

A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720

Ugh you literally beat me by 1 second.

That means Clinton probably trails by 5 in IN

[dspNY]

Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.

Reverse coattails almost never happen

[dspNY]

More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0

[dspNY]

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https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.

Not if Virginia is double digits and NC is mid to high single digits. If that's the case Georgia is probably tied or slightly Clinton.

I think Clinton trails by 5 in SC. Remember when a group puts out an internal it usually overstates their position by 5 points. What it does show is that NC is Clinton's and GA is a tossup

[dspNY]

A poll conductd by Rick Scott's Super PAC shows Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio, 45-45.

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Link.

Clinton +4 or 5 in OH then

[dspNY]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

McInturff also teams up with Peter Hart, a Dem pollster, for the NBC/WSJ poll so he is legit

[dspNY]

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).

Evidence?

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win

[dspNY]

This is an internal, and my rule for taking 5 points off the side releasing the internal holds true for Democrats too. Clinton +7 in WI makes a lot of sense

[dspNY]

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.

To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or 4: The GOP's internals showing Trump as a dumpster fire are correct because they are making unusual moves with money, like using RGA money instead of RNC money which is forced to prop up a failing candidate atop the ticket

[dspNY]

Using my 5 point rule for internals, the Nevada internal is a very good sign for Clinton, but the Iowa internal is no better than mixed news (Clinton should win that district by 10)

[dspNY]

To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points

[dspNY]

Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016

That means Clinton is running slightly ahead of Obama in this district even with a 5 point adjustment against the Democrats. Would also imply she is winning both counties on Long Island since those areas are very similar

[dspNY]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

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This part of the article is also interesting...Blunt trails Kander in internal polling for MO-Sen and Clinton is closing the deficit there. That would indicate that Trump is losing a small piece (2-3%) of his base

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[dspNY]

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

[dspNY]

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

Clinton pretty much has Trump 99% boxed out if that scenario is true. No complacency though

[dspNY]

More internal poll goodness. Remember when Gallup said they were not polling the Presidential race directly? Well apparently they are, and here is a peek into their methodology for a poll they took from September 14-18.

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When doing the back-calculations, this was a national RV poll of 931 registered voters. Their results were:

Clinton 444/931 (47.7%, rounded up to 48)
Trump 407/931 (43.7%, rounded up to 44)
Undecided or Third Party 80/931 (8.6%)

[dspNY]

If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.

They had Clinton up by 4 among RVs from September 14-18

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3

#BattlegroundAlaska

That being said, Alaska has trended Democratic the last four elections

[dspNY]

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

All bets are off now with what is coming out of the GOP

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3

Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.

A caveat on that internal rule; I believe Murkowski is #NeverTrump so her people might be playing it more straight than other pollsters for GOP candidates. That being said, a GOP internal skews GOP even in that circumstance. Maybe not 5 pts but it does skew GOP a little bit

[dspNY]

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376

I want to see a Utah poll next week