Internal poll megathread

[Gass3268]

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right

375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.

[Gass3268]

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

[Gass3268]

In PA's 8th CD, Republican internal poll shows Clinton (42-37) running ahead of Obama in 2012 (50-49).

Apparently I don't have enough posts to include links yet, but you can find it on The Morning Call (mcall.com) if you search for "Fitzpatrick with some good news for Clinton in the 8th District?"

(or just go to: mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-fitzpatrick-with-some-good-news-for-clinton-in-the-8th-district-20160916-story.html)
 

Nice try, Hillary! Accept that you are losing!

This is from a Republican internal poll

[Gass3268]

Apparently, On Message Inc, a Republican polling firm, has Clinton tied with Trump at 45 percent each in Ohio. Devastating news for Trump, if true.

It was from AUG. 13-17.

[Gass3268]

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

If these look really good in the last week, don't be shocked if Clinton is in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. Kaine and Sanders maybe get shipped up to Alaska if it looks close.

[Gass3268]

All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.

lol, more like 2008.

I think we are at 2008 levels, but I think things could get worse. You aren't going to convince folks to vote for Clinton, but stuff like this could convince folks to not even vote.

[Gass3268]

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https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864

If this is accurate, even with the 5 point rule, Missouri is in play.

[Gass3268]

Pre-pussygate

[Gass3268]

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

Hillary Clinton has never lost South Dakota...

[Gass3268]

I love it how the right leaning writers on twitter are retweeting this like its a good thing, when really it shows that if this election behaves the same way it has every cycle since 2006 the Democrats will probably pick up 6-8 seats. Especially with the Clinton camp reconfiguring their message to emphasize the importance of electing Democrats down ballot.

[Gass3268]

He added another tweet:

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The 7th race is Florida, by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).

Someone should give him some water.

[Gass3268]

Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.

[Gass3268]

The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.

[Gass3268]

Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

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This is from the GWU poll.

[Gass3268]

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

If Clinton is up 10 in FL-07, that means Seminole County has gone Democratic, right?

[Gass3268]

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

I think they are trying to get the warning out that things are collapsing. Look at past results, lots of time the dam doesn't break out until the last couple weeks.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.

The mocking these folks deserve...