Internal poll megathread

[NOVA Green]

Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.

Reverse coattails almost never happen

Not sure I buy the reverse coattails theory either in most cases, but there is a chance that voters not liking either presidential nominee might show up to vote for the Senate election, and if so Holmes might have a point that in an extremely close election (like 2008) that if these otherwise non-voters show up they might decide to cast ballots for President at the same time....

[NOVA Green]

Not totally unreasonable considering the state was only (54-49 McCain in '08), so if one looks at the national polling averages, combined with some of the neighboring state polls, it makes sense that this state could be close within MOE, even adjusting for the partisan internal organization that conducted the poll.

Additionally is a highly educated state, where even in the cradle of the Confederacy, we could expect to see a significant defection among "Angry Country Southern Club Ladies", and educated White voters in general to have Yuuuge issues with the current Republican nominee.

Also, there are other reports regarding collapse of Trump support within the suburbs/exurbs of Charlotte, that would include Chester, Chesterfield, Lancaster, and York Counties, most of which are heavily Republican, at a time where the Trump campaign has not yet aired a single ad in NC.

As, I discussed elsewhere with fellow forumites, there is also a significant collapse in Coastal SC counties, from "country club" Republicans from Horry to Beaufort, and even rock solid Republican suburb of Columbia (Lexington County).

It is just an internal poll but..... feel free to discuss, particularly those that live in the state/region and more familiar with some of the demographics.

 

[NOVA Green]

I respectfully suggest to the mods that these two SC threads/post be merged....

Normally internals belong to this thread, but SC is now a hot topic so whatever makes sense.

[NOVA Green]

To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points

I was just going to mention isn't this a D +5 PVI according to Cook Political reports, as well as the most Democratic CD in the state?

[NOVA Green]

Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Def good news for the Dem challenger even if we use the +5 internal rule.

However, most of Isaa's district is actually in North County San Diego, so I wouldn't assume from this internal that OC will flip (Although I think it will for other reasons).

[NOVA Green]

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

Clinton pretty much has Trump 99% boxed out if that scenario is true. No complacency though

This kind of reminds me of a certain German leader whose close confidants and military advisers told him while the Red Army was in the outer suburbs of Berlin, and Montgomery and Eisenhower are racing from the West as fast as they can, while the whole time the dude is camped out in his bunker listening to the historical equivalent of Baghdad Bob, and no one will say what the actual reality of the situation is.

[NOVA Green]

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.

[NOVA Green]

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.

Yawn.... this seems like yet another media event for a few days based upon a lack of real news to talk about.

There aren't very many undecided voters out there anymore, and most Americans are tired about hearing yet another BS story, about Clinton's emails and server.

The only people that really care about it are a small handful of Trump supporters, desperately grasping for any straw in reach to suck down the last sip of their Tequila Sunrise, before they need to order a Tequila Sunset in the closing hours at 2 AM. (Made this a few times before, and its actually a pretty good drink)

http://www.food.com/recipe/tequila-sunset-449518

[NOVA Green]

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.

Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.

Pervert who?

Another email story about the same old, same old, what???

It's the same deal with the Trump groppergate.... big news initially and then five other women came forward and it barely drops on the radar of the American public.

Reality, is that this story, nor the DNC hack stories, doesn't really move the needle.

60+% of Americans see Trump as basically a sexist pig, racially insensitive, and lacking the fundamental judgement, temperament, and experience to run the highest office in the Nation, particularly on foreign policy, and 60% of Americans don't see Clinton as honest and trustworthy, and at worst view her more as a typical "politician" that will say one thing to Wall Street and another to Main Street to get elected.

You can believe whatever you want to believe, but the only people really obsessed with sex are Republicans, and the vast majority of evangelicals decided to forgive Trump of his sins solely because he has an (R) after his last name on the ballot.