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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 66245 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
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« on: September 30, 2016, 12:01:45 pm »

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.

To be fair, this is Heck's congressional district.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 05:08:49 pm »

NBC article on Arizona today - nothing about internal polls but related to the posts above.

Arizona seems to be the prime candidate for playing the role Indiana did in 2008a state that one wouldn't expect to tip over to the Democrat, but where a serious asymmetry in ground game coupled with a bad macro environment for the Republican makes for a surprise.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 07:41:54 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 07:53:02 am »

If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.

Does this theory impress you at all? So far, I see little evidence myself of down ballot damage to Pubs arising from the Trump tanking.

Oh, I can easily imagine that Republican senators have some benefit from looking moderate next to Trump. I'm also thinking that presidential candidates aside, this election was likely to favor Republicans because Obama is coming off of two turns. The fact we're discussing D gains of only 4-5 seats with a reasonable Hillary win in a cycle where Rs are defending 24 seats to the Dems' 10 proves that. For me, it's all about who actually shows up to vote, and who stays home.  
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 07:54:58 am »

We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 01:07:41 pm »

Once again, I'm only here to post info. Don't shoot me, please:

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That's all well and good and believable, Clinton official, but what also matters is if it affects Trump's support.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 08:08:28 am »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 pm »


Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 04:22:43 pm »

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.
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