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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64969 times)
Likely Voter
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Concerned Citizen
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« on: July 18, 2016, 12:34:50 am »

There was an internal megathread in the primary poll sub but I don't see one for general, so this will be it.

Internals should not be put into the db but can be shared here.
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Likely Voter
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Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,352


« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2016, 09:18:20 pm »

Please link to sources or say where you saw it on TV
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Likely Voter
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Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,352


« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2016, 04:09:18 pm »

John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

If Trump can get back ahead in NH, NC and FL (which they don't call long shots) they get to 269.  ME2 gets him to 270.  If you look at his TV spending last week, this seems to be their strategy, with CO being their only additional significant spend as a possible backup. 

It's a risky strategy to bet the farm on a plan that relies on winning NV or CO but if PA, WI, and MI are looking to stay in the blue wall, what other choice do they have?  They are focussing on states Bush Jr won at last once except for NM (too many mexicans) and VA (home of Kaine)
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Likely Voter
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Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 8,352


« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2016, 04:39:57 pm »

Internal polls should be better because they start with the voter data and they have their own metriics ofrom their GOTV operations, but they can get things wrong if they make bad assumptions.  Romney's team assumed they would get their voters out and Obama wouldn't.  They were wrong. It would be curious to see what assumptions the Trump team are using to show leads in NV and OH.  I would bet that Clinton internals have her up in both. 

It's like that recent upshot experiment where they gave the same raw data to four different pollsters, and each had a different result. Some showing trump up some Clinton up.   
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Likely Voter
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Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,352


« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 05:18:16 pm »

John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"
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