Internal poll megathread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Go. Away.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).

Evidence?

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win

Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the margin is too high, but fantasies about WI being a Trump/tipping point state are bonkers.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No way these would get leaked.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.

Maybe attempt to verify first?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well... I suppose it is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The Trump person isn't talking about polling, they're talking about a path. A least Clinton's is talking about the lay of the land.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.

If I had to guess, I think Trump ends up winning both by about the same margin (2-3 points).

Wait... I'm more optimistic than you are?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

MO by an eyelash? Lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

Clinton exceeded expectations in Ohio due to anti-Trump cross-overs, not her ground game.

Actually no. The cross-over didn't do THAT much. She over-performed because pollsters freaked out due to the MI f*** up and f***ed that up too.