Internal poll megathread

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.

To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.

To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or 4: The GOP's internals showing Trump as a dumpster fire are correct because they are making unusual moves with money, like using RGA money instead of RNC money which is forced to prop up a failing candidate atop the ticket

This may be true, but in that case public polls should be showing that as well, unless there's some force which is pulling the two apart.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3

Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.

Umm... if there's a 30% chance of rain, are you going to drive 2 hours to the beach?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

Yep, as I said the polls have rebounded. It helps that most polls being released lack the day of the Comey release.

The truth is (as usual) in the middle.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

...then why hasn't anyone heard of them? There seems to be a steady stream of Tweets coming from consultants about HRC winning big, yet there's nothing of the kind on Trump. Any explanations?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Because they are internals? We also haven't seen any Romney data from 2012

But we did get gobs of hints from his aides. This year, we have "Says who?".


Also, can this be moved to the main 2016 board? I seem to have posted it in the wrong place.