Internal poll megathread

[Devout Centrist]

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah

Any link?

[Devout Centrist]

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right

375-163.

[Devout Centrist]

A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720

Eh that's a load of junk.

[Devout Centrist]

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016

As usual, CA-07 will be close. It's nice that at least one of my votes really counts. I've been push polled by a Dem poll; there will probably be more.

I doubt that Jones is ahead by that much if Clinton leads by 4. Bera has been hammering Jones on sexual harassment allegations, while Jones has been attacking illegal fundraising by Bera's father. This will be a close race for the third time in a row. I expect that Bera will pull it off though.

Former resident of CA-04 speaking.

I fully expect Bera to win. He pulled it off against Doug Ose, former Congressman from that district (back in the mid-00's before redistricting). Ose was a pro choice Republican and on the whole, very moderate. Scott Jones, on the other hand, is not.

Bera won in a midterm election, he should win now.

[Devout Centrist]

If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.

[Devout Centrist]

If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.

They had Clinton up by 4 among RVs from September 14-18

I saw that, I'm just saying that, given their ineffectiveness, it's not a stretch to say they're underestimating her.

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.

[Devout Centrist]

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.

The question is why. RCP is notorious for cherrypicking R friendly polls.

We Americans love simplicity. Hence, Real CLEAR Politics.

[Devout Centrist]

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

[Devout Centrist]

@markzbarabak

More evidence Arizona is in play: Fresh-out-of-the-field poll by GOP firm @azhighground shows Clinton +2, suggesting effectively a toss-up.

More likely a tilt D if that's the case.

[Devout Centrist]

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.

Well educated suburb and Jones was one of the first to support Trump.

Bera isn't going to win by anywhere near that margin, but it could be around 3-4 points. I am from that district too.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I doubt that many will split tickets.

Oh jesus, it could be Armageddon.

[Devout Centrist]

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

Ruh-roh.

And those are internals!

[Devout Centrist]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.

Selzer has overestimated Trump this whole cycle, starting with the Iow caucuses.

[Devout Centrist]

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The truth is (as usual) in the middle.

Not necessarily

[Devout Centrist]

"John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
Priebus on Michigan: "we’ve invested over $100M in data. track race far better than any polling. predictive modeling tells us it's tied""

Have they already forgotten 2012?

And if it's called when the polls close, I'm going to laugh my ass off.

[Devout Centrist]

‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

If they're saying that, the reality could be worse.

[Devout Centrist]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

Clinton exceeded expectations in Ohio due to anti-Trump cross-overs, not her ground game.

lol

[Devout Centrist]

Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?

Dude's ed, Florida confirmed for HRC

[Devout Centrist]

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.

If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.

Or Clinton by 10.