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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 65040 times)
Lok
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,277
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

« on: October 04, 2016, 06:23:00 pm »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.
Speak for yourself.
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Lok
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,277
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 05:52:44 pm »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.
RIP GOP IN GA
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