Internal poll megathread

[Dr. Arch]

Pls

[Dr. Arch]

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

[Dr. Arch]

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

This is Chuck Todd. This could mean 2 or 4.

Ah... lol. If Hillary would be up 13 in IA-4, she would be landsliding beyond belief.

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton +6 in KS-03

lol, are KS, SC, AZ and GA flipping D this year, while IA flips R? That would be quite interesting.

[Dr. Arch]

More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0

We need a North Carolina is evolving GIF.

[Dr. Arch]

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

[Dr. Arch]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.

[Dr. Arch]

GOP poll for MN-03 also had Presidential numbers.

Clinton 39%
Trump 30%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%

(Obama won MN-03 in 2012 by less than 1%)

https://twitter.com/RachelSB/status/770401070266724352

LOL. Wow, that's horrible. He's gonna lose MN badly.

[Dr. Arch]

[Dr. Arch]

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.

[Dr. Arch]

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.

At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Puerto Ricans are much more D than Cubans and have disproportionately grown in the last 4 years relative to other Hispanics in the state. So it depends how the intentional over sample was composed (can't see right now, on iPhone). Does it say anything?

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016

Definitely a good sign.

[Dr. Arch]

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

Good. He deserves no less.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Oh my goodness

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosaDC/status/785315386111721472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Schmidt on Senate numbers from GOP internals......

Bruh. I look forward to Senator Kander on top of Feingold.

[Dr. Arch]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864

If this is accurate, even with the 5 point rule, Missouri is in play.

The fact that Missouri may have 2 D Senators and a D Governor is quite a turn of events imo. Voting for HRC would be the icing on the cake.

[Dr. Arch]

Hmmmm.....

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC

Nate Cohn Retweeted Patrick Svitek

A real 'whoa if true'

Nate Cohn added,
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.
0 replies 21 retweets 52 likes

. So the nightmare scenario is happening. Trump is being forced to defend Texas.

[Dr. Arch]

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

So, following the 5-point rule, he's at the edge in GA and losing AZ and OH. Not buying UT or TX, and IN+6 is about expected.