Internal poll megathread

[HillOfANight]

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/2016/07/14/internal-polling-shows-gingrich-could-deliver-key-swing-states/

Southern Political Report, trying to hype up their Southern son Gingrich... before Pence was picked.

Trump/Pence lose Florida by 1
Trump/Pence win GA by 1 vs Clinton
Trump/Pence LOSE GA by 1 vs Clinton/Warren
Trump/Pence lose North Carolina

[HillOfANight]

DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.

That was among the undecided voters. They never published the numbers for all voters (likely not favorable for her).

[HillOfANight]

Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)

I asked them the composition/preference and this is the most info they gave me. Seems reasonable considering past years and demographic growth.

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https://twitter.com/LoriGearyWSB/status/757588822469271557

WSB/LandMark should release something by 6PM for Georgia to confirm too.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-summer-warning-227129

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[HillOfANight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/770354384731602944
https://www.scribd.com/document/322485067/CA-49-Strategies-360-for-Doug-Applegate-Aug-2016

Trump's incredibly weak in affluent, well-educated areas. New poll has Clinton +5 in CA-49 (Issa). 2012: Romney +6.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

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Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-candidates-downballot-hurt-227882

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/774008265281789953

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/7/9/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts

It seems like despite the public polls tightening, there's been a lot of bed wetting among GOP consultants screaming disaster.

Trump is behind in KS-03 which Daily Kos says Romney won 54-44.

In SC senate district 22, Trump is down 22 (Romney lost by 15)

In Indiana, IN-2 which Romney won by 14% and IN-2 which Romney won by 17, are close.

[HillOfANight]

Besides CNN and Quinnipiac, who both have crazy swings and heavy editorializing in their poll releases, I think most of the big pollsters strive to be honest and present an accurate depiction of the race. It seems clear the race has tightened.

But Trump is still behind and people in down ballot races have real concerns that Trump is going to blow it for them, even if he is improving a few points.

[HillOfANight]

The problem is it doesn't matter if Trump loses Colorado by 10 or by 5, he's still losing.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.

[HillOfANight]

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.

At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/778220489437286400

Public polls have OH tight, but @AFLCIO's @RichardTrumka will today reveal internals w Trump 5pts behind Romney '12 among local union voters

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/amid-corruption-issues-rivera-losing-to-unknown-asencio-in-fla-democratic-poll-105658

in Florida House District 118, Trump is trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton 49-43 percent. in 2012 President Obama won it by about 2 points

[HillOfANight]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/781959952948666369

Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball got word of an Ohio Lucas County (Toledo) poll by Stan Odesky and Associates.

Clinton 50
Trump 23
Johnson 6
Stein 1
Undecided 21

Obama won it by 32, 65-33, and Kyle thinks her 27 point margin is decent, considering the undecideds.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/783004625263820801

Clinton +11 in Colorado from Keating Research.

Clinton 44
Trump 33
Johnson 11
Stein 3
Other 4
Undecided 6

Among white voters, she's ahead 42-37.

[HillOfANight]

https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/NV-CD-03-10.3.16.pdf

According to The Tarrance Group, in Nevada's 3rd congressional district, Donald Trump has a three point advantage (43%-40%) over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race and Trump has a three point advantage (38%-35%) among voters making a definite choice.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

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[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-western-nevada-arizona-229219

Two post-debate polls of likely Colorado voters this week showed Clinton leading Trump by 11 points overall..“This is her high water mark right now,” said a GOP operative whose private polling showed Clinton at her highest point all year.

[HillOfANight]

https://www.savethechildrenactionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/SCAN-NH-General-Election-public-100616.pdf

greenberg quinlan rosner research new hampshire

Clinton 46
Trump 38

[HillOfANight]

Wow @Alaska! I'm still waiting for her to crush him in the town hall before declaring victory.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

[HillOfANight]

A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.

What forum is this?