Internal poll megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 12:49:05 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 96810 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« on: August 11, 2016, 01:04:34 PM »

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 02:25:48 PM »

Ugh you literally beat me by 1 second.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2016, 02:16:40 PM »
538 has more details on this Indiana poll. The pollster is called "Expedition Strategies", was taken over August 1-3, included 600 Likely Voters, and was adjusted to a 1 point lead for Clinton in the 538 polls-only model and a 1 point lead for Trump in the polls-plus model.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 05:51:23 PM »
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2016, 09:39:27 AM »
Quote from: calvinhobbesliker on October 22, 2016, 09:30:05 AM
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2016, 10:07:56 AM »
Quote from: Fancy Bear on October 22, 2016, 10:01:32 AM
Quote from: psychprofessor on October 22, 2016, 09:59:22 AM
Quote from: heatcharger on October 22, 2016, 09:41:31 AM
Quote from: calvinhobbesliker on October 22, 2016, 09:30:05 AM
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?

Yes.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2016, 10:24:48 AM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on October 22, 2016, 10:18:16 AM
I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

From what I understand about the psychology of polling, you want your party members to think things are close but not doomed. Too large a deficit and people could get demoralized.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2016, 06:50:58 PM »
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buoyed-by-rising-polls-clinton-shifts-to-a-new-target-the-house-and-senate/2016/10/22/9c717070-97c3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:54 PM »
John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2016, 10:12:17 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:27:22 AM by Castro »
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2016, 10:19:36 AM »
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  10m10 minutes ago
GOP Senate strategist on Roy Blunt's precarious fate in MO: "1% race. think he wins"
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2016, 07:50:46 AM »
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  8m8 minutes ago
top D pollster: "changes incredibly exaggerated. some tightening. Trump fav better"

top R pollster: "some narrowing, not that significant"
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2016, 08:10:21 AM »
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2016, 08:40:26 AM »
Republican pollster North Star Opinion Research finds Don Bacon (R) leading Rep. Brad Ashford (D) 48-44 in NE-2:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump also leads Clinton by 4 points:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd say this is pretty good for Clinton considering it's a Republican internal with her trailing by as much as Ashford.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-gives-don-bacon-late-edge-rare-pickup-opportunity-nebraska-brad-ashford-house?utm_content=buffer72397&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2016, 10:48:50 AM »
Quote from: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:12:56 AM
@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

This top GOP pollster might be Tony Fabrizio, who linked to Harwood's tweet and said:

Tony Fabrizio
‏@TonyFabrizioGOP Tony Fabrizio Retweeted John Harwood
What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 07:45:00 AM »
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 07:52:34 AM »
More top men. Who? TOP. MEN.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  7m7 minutes ago
top Dem pollster on Clinton edge: "could get tighter because partisanship such a driver of vote choice, but she's holding steady"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 04:30:34 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 04:22:43 PM
Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Wow, the election is so rigged that even Trump internals are rigged now.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 08:11:41 AM »
If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2016, 12:39:51 PM »
Quote from: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 12:34:24 PM
@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2016, 03:53:18 PM »
Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 09:20:25 AM »
Quote from: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 09:18:22 AM
"John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
Priebus on Michigan: "we’ve invested over $100M in data. track race far better than any polling. predictive modeling tells us it's tied""

Lol ok Reince. You're almost done, don't worry.

Also:
Glenn Thrush ‏@GlennThrush  1m1 minute ago
Podesta tells @chucktodd he feels "very, very good" about Hispanic turnout in Nevada/Fla compensating for sag in AA early voting
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 10:27:06 AM »
Quote from: HillOfANight on November 06, 2016, 10:12:43 AM
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan

Disappointing, but I guess better to lock down the blue wall than make a last ditch effort to keep Iowa in.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 09:13:42 PM »
Tom Bentley
‏@thomaswmbentley
@ppppolls Do you guys think the same person is gonna win NC and FL?

PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling Retweeted Tom Bentley
Think Hillary will win both but more confident about Florida
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2016, 03:12:23 PM »
Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.04 seconds with 13 queries.