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October 21, 2020, 08:48:35 AM
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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 67675 times)
marty
boshembechle
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« on: September 16, 2016, 12:24:36 PM »

Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.
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marty
boshembechle
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Posts: 3,791


« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2016, 10:53:19 PM »

This thread is hilarious .
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