Internal poll megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:29:48 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27 28 29 ... 32
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 94998 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #575 on: November 01, 2016, 03:50:10 PM »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts

Niiiice.
Logged
calvinhobbesliker
Rookie
**
Posts: 33


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #576 on: November 01, 2016, 07:47:17 PM »

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #577 on: November 01, 2016, 07:48:34 PM »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts

Niiiice.

Trump will win NC by at least 3%, though no more than 5%.
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #578 on: November 01, 2016, 07:50:16 PM »

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”

What a joke.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #579 on: November 01, 2016, 07:51:26 PM »

Hillary has rarely hit the upper 50s in a NY poll, so it's not impossible Trump could hit 40% there, though unlikely.
Logged
Milton Friedman
Rookie
**
Posts: 16
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #580 on: November 01, 2016, 07:53:17 PM »

Majority Leader Cantor nods his head in approval at that NY poll.
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #581 on: November 01, 2016, 07:53:45 PM »

Hillary has rarely hit the upper 50s in a NY poll, so it's not impossible Trump could hit 40% there, though unlikely.

I am talking about the question.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #582 on: November 01, 2016, 08:32:46 PM »

While I do expect Trump to perform better in New York than Romney, I don't see how he hits 40%. You have to remember that Stein\Johnson\others will probably get about 5% of the vote here.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #583 on: November 02, 2016, 07:45:00 AM »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #584 on: November 02, 2016, 07:46:48 AM »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.
lol maybe he has money invested in the betting odds
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #585 on: November 02, 2016, 07:52:34 AM »

More top men. Who? TOP. MEN.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  7m7 minutes ago
top Dem pollster on Clinton edge: "could get tighter because partisanship such a driver of vote choice, but she's holding steady"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #586 on: November 02, 2016, 08:00:02 AM »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #587 on: November 02, 2016, 08:08:28 AM »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #588 on: November 02, 2016, 08:12:13 AM »

6 sounds about right to me, give or take two points in either direction.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #589 on: November 02, 2016, 08:26:15 AM »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #590 on: November 02, 2016, 08:30:05 AM »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".

So the reality is really Tied to 4 points? I believe it. One more oppo hit against Hillary and Trump will win. Else, she wins.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #591 on: November 02, 2016, 10:30:05 AM »

gop pollster: clinton leading 2-4, trump turnout gonna b good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793833306097852416
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #592 on: November 02, 2016, 10:41:24 AM »


Excellent analysis.  Non-existent GOTV efforts almost always coincide with fantastic turnout.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #593 on: November 02, 2016, 10:43:08 AM »

true but we shouldn't underestimate the RNC and the senate campaigns.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #594 on: November 02, 2016, 12:09:11 PM »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #595 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:03 PM »


But the counterpoint from  a GOP strategist is:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #596 on: November 02, 2016, 12:11:08 PM »

NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #597 on: November 02, 2016, 12:14:36 PM »

Private polling the entire cycle has been steady with a mid single digit lead nationally for Clinton. GOP internals are notoriously horrible in presidential years and I would be skeptical of any reports of states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire being close.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #598 on: November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 PM »


Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #599 on: November 02, 2016, 12:20:36 PM »


Some internals had him down double digits a week ago.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 [24] 25 26 27 28 29 ... 32  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 13 queries.