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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 66703 times)
MasterJedi
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« Reply #650 on: November 04, 2016, 10:06:01 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #651 on: November 04, 2016, 10:06:47 am »

Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"

If that's true, he's phucked.  It would be funny if Ohio is like Missouri in 2008 where it comes down to a recount but Hillary has already won.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #652 on: November 04, 2016, 10:07:27 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

No one wants it to end like this...
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KingSweden
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« Reply #653 on: November 04, 2016, 10:09:00 am »

Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"

Prob within half a point either way
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Autumn Springs
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #654 on: November 04, 2016, 10:12:07 am »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #655 on: November 04, 2016, 10:13:12 am »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.

Hmmm, turning a corner are we?
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #656 on: November 04, 2016, 10:13:37 am »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #657 on: November 04, 2016, 10:18:57 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #658 on: November 04, 2016, 10:20:18 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.

Bernie bros, I think
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #659 on: November 04, 2016, 10:27:02 am »

Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
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AOC Stan
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #660 on: November 04, 2016, 10:28:42 am »

Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #661 on: November 04, 2016, 10:34:57 am »

Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41

That's pretty common, people overestimate supporting the winner.
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darthpi
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« Reply #662 on: November 04, 2016, 11:43:20 am »

Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41

That's pretty common, people overestimate supporting the winner.

And yet the people running the LA Times poll couldn't figure that out.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #663 on: November 05, 2016, 12:34:24 pm »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #664 on: November 05, 2016, 12:39:51 pm »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #665 on: November 05, 2016, 12:41:08 pm »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.

Matching Romney's 206 is a very plausible outcome.  Swap NC/AZ for IA/OH.  Both pairs add up to 26 EV and cancel each other out.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #666 on: November 05, 2016, 12:42:17 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 12:44:46 pm by Yank2133 »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

It is all about TrumpTV.

He would lose credibility if he gets blown out worse then Mitt.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #667 on: November 05, 2016, 01:06:27 pm »

PPP has polled Ohio four times since Labor Day, and each time they've found the race within a point.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #668 on: November 05, 2016, 01:06:50 pm »

Caveat: Its Glenn Thrush
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ReapSow
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« Reply #669 on: November 05, 2016, 01:23:18 pm »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.

Matching Romney's 206 is a very plausible outcome.  Swap NC/AZ for IA/OH.  Both pairs add up to 26 EV and cancel each other out.

Ohio + Iowa = 24 EV.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #670 on: November 05, 2016, 03:06:39 pm »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.

What is that supposed to mean?
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #671 on: November 05, 2016, 03:08:18 pm »

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.

What is that supposed to mean?
That they weren't about promoting fossil fuel companies or that they had a major stay in steering the BC00 and BC04 administration.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #672 on: November 05, 2016, 03:11:51 pm »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.

Matching Romney's 206 is a very plausible outcome.  Swap NC/AZ for IA/OH.  Both pairs add up to 26 EV and cancel each other out.

Ohio + Iowa = 24 EV.

So it is.  Don't know what I was thinking.  Thanks. Smiley
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #673 on: November 05, 2016, 03:53:18 pm »

Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #674 on: November 05, 2016, 03:54:23 pm »

Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.

Really kind of surprised to him say this publicly.
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