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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 65011 times)
dspNY
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« Reply #50 on: August 13, 2016, 02:42:58 pm »


That means Clinton probably trails by 5 in IN
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Maxwell
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« Reply #51 on: August 13, 2016, 02:48:58 pm »

lol. Even if its close in Indiana, that's devastating.

Once again, I'm right - Pence hurts Trump's chances in Indiana.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #52 on: August 13, 2016, 02:52:59 pm »

Trump is in trouble everywhere, so of course he's also undeperforming in IN. I doubt it has anything to do with Pence, lol.

Yeah, I agree. I doubt Pence hurt or helped. Most likely he had no effect, which would be consistent with his middling approval rating and the tough fight for re-election he was going to have.
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
xingkerui
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« Reply #53 on: August 13, 2016, 02:55:27 pm »

Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.
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Holmes
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« Reply #54 on: August 13, 2016, 03:05:27 pm »

Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.
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dspNY
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« Reply #55 on: August 13, 2016, 03:41:07 pm »

Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.

Reverse coattails almost never happen
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xingkerui
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« Reply #56 on: August 13, 2016, 05:26:39 pm »

Yeah, I don't think Bayh will help Clinton in Indiana, but if he really is doing 26 points better than her (or something close to that) I can't imagine him losing.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #57 on: August 13, 2016, 05:38:53 pm »

Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.

Reverse coattails almost never happen

Not sure I buy the reverse coattails theory either in most cases, but there is a chance that voters not liking either presidential nominee might show up to vote for the Senate election, and if so Holmes might have a point that in an extremely close election (like 2008) that if these otherwise non-voters show up they might decide to cast ballots for President at the same time....
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #58 on: August 14, 2016, 11:47:54 am »

I don't know if this is the right format or place for this post, but a pollster called Howey Politics has Clinton and Trump tied in INDIANA at 44% each:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/14/1559993/-Are-Trump-and-Clinton-tied-44-44-in-Indiana

That's with Trump picking an Indiana running mate!
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LLR
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« Reply #59 on: August 14, 2016, 11:54:07 am »

I don't know if this is the right format or place for this post, but a pollster called Howey Politics has Clinton and Trump tied in INDIANA at 44% each:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/14/1559993/-Are-Trump-and-Clinton-tied-44-44-in-Indiana

That's with Trump picking an Indiana running mate!

Who is unpopular in his state
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #60 on: August 15, 2016, 02:16:40 pm »

538 has more details on this Indiana poll. The pollster is called "Expedition Strategies", was taken over August 1-3, included 600 Likely Voters, and was adjusted to a 1 point lead for Clinton in the 538 polls-only model and a 1 point lead for Trump in the polls-plus model.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #61 on: August 15, 2016, 02:19:10 pm »

538 has more details on this Indiana poll. The pollster is called "Expedition Strategies", was taken over August 1-3, included 600 Likely Voters, and was adjusted to a 1 point lead for Clinton in the 538 polls-only model and a 1 point lead for Trump in the polls-plus model.
It's given no grade at all and is weighted at .47 (cf. Tarrance's late July poll still at .41, and Marist's April poll still weighted at .96), for those interested.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #62 on: August 17, 2016, 06:09:57 pm »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-summer-warning-227129

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dspNY
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« Reply #63 on: August 18, 2016, 07:43:46 pm »
« Edited: August 18, 2016, 07:47:46 pm by dspNY »

More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0
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heatcharger
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« Reply #64 on: August 19, 2016, 09:21:36 am »

More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0

Wow. If Trump is down double digits in GOP internals then Burr and McCrory are dead men walking.
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Arch
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« Reply #65 on: August 19, 2016, 09:36:35 am »

More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0

We need a North Carolina is evolving GIF.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #66 on: August 19, 2016, 10:21:01 am »

Trump down double digits in North Carolina? I find that hard to believe. If so, then the closest analogue to this election will be 1964.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #67 on: August 19, 2016, 10:25:04 am »


I love how they bothered to tell us that Trump is losing in Vermont.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #68 on: August 19, 2016, 10:26:33 am »

Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #69 on: August 19, 2016, 10:28:17 am »

Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.

Can't really say that for anyone other than Trump though. State would be close but I have to believe any other Republican would win it against Clinton especially.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #70 on: August 19, 2016, 10:31:12 am »

Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.

Can't really say that for anyone other than Trump though. State would be close but I have to believe any other Republican would win it against Clinton especially.

True, but the real question will be if Trump is a fluke or a harbinger of permanent realignment. It's not hard for me to imagine him permanently shifting VA, CO, and NC slightly bluer from now on. Especially considering that Romney and McCain were about as acceptable to your average college educated white as any GOP candidate I see coming down the road any time soon, and these states were at least competitive under those two candidates. A 5% college educated white shift basically puts VA away, makes CO lean dem (at least as much as NH, PA) and makes NC the new FL.
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Holmes
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« Reply #71 on: August 19, 2016, 10:52:05 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #72 on: August 19, 2016, 11:31:02 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.
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darthpi
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« Reply #73 on: August 19, 2016, 11:38:53 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT
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Arch
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« Reply #74 on: August 19, 2016, 11:39:58 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.
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