Internal poll megathread

[dspNY]

Link.

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?

If he's at 70%...if he's at 79% he's probably a point worse than Bob Dole's defeat in 1996 (something like Clinton +10)

[dspNY]

Democrats quickly ramping up their internal polling across the board:

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html

Clinton's internals are showing a big national lead and she wants to see how far into red territory it extends

[dspNY]

Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"

[dspNY]

DCCC supposedly has Stephanie Murphy ahead of Rep. John Mica by a 45-43 margin in FL-7, and Clinton ahead by a 47-36 margin

http://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FL-07-Poll-Release-2016.10.11.pdf

Using the 5 point rule, Mica is narrowly ahead but Clinton leads by 6 in a district that has an R+4 PVI, meaning that she is in very good shape in the I-4

[dspNY]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-democrats-downballot-229718

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That would explain why Trump has consolidated to a 4 state campaign (PA, OH, NC, FL). He has to win them all. Clinton only needs one. Right now, Clinton is winning them all

[dspNY]

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

[dspNY]

CNN Inside Politics: Internal Republican polling has Trump trailing by double digits in PA and NH. As a result, Toomey and Ayotte also trail, but only by a few points. In NV, their polling has Trump "trailing by single digits, but Joe Heck up a little." That information is in the CNN embedded video.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/ip-forecast-clinton-red-states-trump-down-ballot/index.html

[dspNY]

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

[dspNY]

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

Alaska amazingly will move to Lean Republican with this poll. Even taking into account that this is a Dem internal, the last four polls have been Trump by 8, 6, 3, and now 1. Each pollster (Ivan Moore Research and Lake Research) has shown a five point shift to Clinton since the first debate and the Access Hollywood tapes

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

Oof, if Clinton is winning this kind of district by 13, she will be competitive in counties like Delaware County (OH), Sheboygan (WI), and will win Northeast Iowa by the margins required to carry the state

[dspNY]

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

[dspNY]

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Priorities USA is going up with TV and radio ads in GA

[dspNY]

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

Even with the 5 point rule these polls indicate strength in suburban areas for Clinton. PA-16 is an R+6 district and if it is going Dem, Clinton is up by at least 10-12 points in PA. That district has a lot of rural areas in the T which you'd expect would be teabagger country

[dspNY]

Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

If Clinton is up 10 in FL-07, that means Seminole County has gone Democratic, right?

Yes. With the 5 point rule it is barely Republican and Trump is down 4-5 points statewide

[dspNY]

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109052487.html

Clinton up 30 in Miami-Dade (58-28), 6 points wider than in 2012 (62-38).

Clinton’s spread over Trump is “the most that any Democrat has ever gotten, dating back to the 2000 election

That would be a swing of almost 60K voters to the Democrats, since around 880K voted in Miami-Dade in 2012

[dspNY]

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

[dspNY]

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy

[dspNY]

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232

[dspNY]

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?

If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

If Trump is lagging Romney even by one or two points in the Rust Belt he loses

[dspNY]

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

[dspNY]

Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Then he's down by more than that

[dspNY]

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

[dspNY]

‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

So they're conceding FL.

Correlates with Chuck Todd's comments on TODAY this morning from Republican insiders "very nervous" about Hispanic over-performance in FL. Concede FL, concede the election

[dspNY]

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.

Maybe you make one stop, but not five. Check out some of the Youtube clips from the 1988 election and you'll see Trump is throwing spaghetti at the wall in a similar way