Internal poll megathread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Of the 64.4% (322/500) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 46  (+6.0)
Trump - 40
Johnson - 8
Stein - 2
Other - 2

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.

Bernie bros, I think

[Erich Maria Remarque]

He doesn't want to interfer the election process

And he wants to be... unpredictable

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If you internals are really so good, you're chilling. Not writing "mystic" s**t like this

I mean: Just look att PPP; they were playfull and funny. Well, not anymore, they spent their time to say: "in our private polls, she's leading" and realesed public polls, though that didn't plan it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

He doesn't want to interfer the election process

And he wants to be... unpredictable

I'm the White Wizard!

No, you are black!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

Not internal polling but here are where each team stands.

"a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states, seven of which are seeing significant early- and absentee-voting operations. In those seven states where large numbers of voters are expected to cast their ballots before Election Day — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin — more than three-quarters of Democrats think their party has done a better job turning out key voters thus far.

Democratic insiders are most confident in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. They express more uncertainty in Florida and Iowa.

"Republicans, meanwhile, were split across these early voting states. Overall, 40 percent said the GOP was doing the better job, compared with 31 percent who said Democrats were overperforming. Another 29 percent said neither party had a discernible advantage."

"(The question wasn’t posed to insiders in Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia — states that don't offer early voting and have more restrictive absentee ballot requirements.)"

What? They are confident about Ohio, but not about Florida

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan

One more evidence that superduper magic internals & ground-game doesn't differ much from public polling, no/si?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan

One more evidence that superduper magic internals & ground-game doesn't differ much from public polling, no/si?

on the contrary....IA is the opposite if OH.....full republican support for trump since day1 and its demography was pro-populism to begin with....the main reason it voted straight D since years was republican anti-farmer-policy during reagan, i was told.

And? You think it is coincidence that Obama was cancelled day after Selzer showed Trump+7?