Internal poll megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 94962 times)
HillOfANight
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« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2016, 10:22:51 AM »

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/10/theres-nothing-better-than-a-scared-rich-candidate/497522/

I would take anything from Mike Murphy with a grain of salt. He completely failed Jeb. Internal national polls not really helpful either.

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HillOfANight
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« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2016, 01:14:21 PM »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-democrats-downballot-229718

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HillOfANight
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« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2016, 08:40:09 AM »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.



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HillOfANight
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« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2016, 12:18:06 PM »

Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2016, 10:57:42 AM »

http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending

From 9/4-9/10 they did a pointless $12k buy in Georgia... Just a troll move, more to create headlines and freak out Trump than to move numbers.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2016, 12:21:20 PM »

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/788417182996783104



Trump down 14 in New Hampshire, down 11 in Pennsylvania. Probably exaggerated BS but still.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2016, 06:24:21 PM »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/788489977512333312
The PAC is going into Georgia!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2016, 06:44:50 PM »

Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.

I think they should have been here earlier, but it just feels on the ground like she can win. I'm thinking Cherokee/Gwinnett will lose a few GOP voters (college educated/evangelical), but he's going to lose a horrific amount of support in Rubio country (Fulton/Dekalb). Even though that's not his base, it's a lot of votes. Lots of moderate Republicans I know refuse to vote for Trump.

http://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do
Kind of hard to use since they split the counties, but...below are the vote in person numbers as well as D-R margin and vote count. I'll try and figure out how to make a script to combine them to be easily pivotable, but for now, just went into each file...

(Obama-romney) 2012 votes

7.0K in Fulton (64-35) 390K
7.6K in Dekalb (78-21) 305K
1.6K in Gwinnett (45-54) 295K
3.7K in Cobb (43-55) 309K
3.5K in Forsyth (18-81) 82K

It does seem like Forsyth is punching above its weight relative to its low population.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2016, 07:33:36 PM »

It's a disgrace what they're doing in Gwinnett, just 1 in Lawrenceville for the whole county (not surprisingly, most of the early voters are from Lawrenceville).

http://www.tomnash.eu/how-to-combine-multiple-csv-files-into-one-using-cmd/
So I figured out how to combine the CSV files and did some analysis on it. Simply, ballot status A (accepted), comparing 2016 vote totals to 2012 final count. Obviously simple analysis that doesn't take into consideration of current voter registration.

Fulton is at 12.6K (now that I counted accepted mail), 3.2% of 2012
Dekalb at 4%
Cobb at 3.3%
Gwinnett at 2.3% (disastrous 1 voting site)
Forsyth is 6%
Clayton's at 3.4%
Muscogee is 4.1%
Columbia is 4.8%
Henry is 3.1%
Hall is 4.5%
Cherokee is 2.8%.

Overall, IF access is there, Republicans are doing better (Forsyth). Otherwise kind of mixed.

Also, I took each county's 2012 D/R margin, applied it to current county vote totals and came up with Trump 55% Clinton 44%. Hopefully as in person early voting ramps up this gap closes.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2016, 08:02:53 AM »

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109052487.html

Clinton up 30 in Miami-Dade (58-28), 6 points wider than in 2012 (62-38).

Clinton’s spread over Trump is “the most that any Democrat has ever gotten, dating back to the 2000 election
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2016, 09:01:41 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 09:11:59 AM by HillOfANight »

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/788739385810362372
http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/new-hmp-polls-democrats-on-offense-across-the-country

Clarity Campaign Labs polls not sure if they're posted here yet. I compared it to here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 (Obama 51 Romney 47)
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 (Obama 58 Romney 41)
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (Obama 44 Romney 54)
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 (Obama 53 Romney 44)
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 (Obama 50 Romney 49)
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 (Obama 52 Romney 46)

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HillOfANight
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« Reply #36 on: October 19, 2016, 09:31:08 AM »

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/788739385810362372
http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/new-hmp-polls-democrats-on-offense-across-the-country

Clarity Campaign Labs polls not sure if they're posted here yet. I compared it to here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 (Obama 51 Romney 47)
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 (Obama 58 Romney 41)
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (Obama 44 Romney 54)
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 (Obama 53 Romney 44)
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 (Obama 50 Romney 49)
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 (Obama 52 Romney 46)


For readability

CA-10: Clinton +1 / Obama +4
IL-10: Clinton +23/ Obama +17
KS-03: Clinton +9/ Romney +10
ME-02: Tie / Obama +9
MN-03: Clinton +19/ Obama +1
MN-08: Trump +1/ Obama+6
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #37 on: October 21, 2016, 07:54:52 PM »

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
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Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #38 on: October 22, 2016, 07:23:48 PM »

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It seems like they see the Senate/governor's race have a winnable race, but need extra push in the cities... but they don't expect/plan to win the whole state.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #39 on: October 23, 2016, 07:35:44 PM »


Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona

It looks like North GA is voting early a lot. Excess of retired cabin retirees?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #40 on: October 25, 2016, 07:25:52 AM »

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #41 on: October 25, 2016, 07:34:56 AM »

I have suspicious about private polls and wonder if they just make them up and feed them to reporters to advance their Never Trump agenda, but it does make its way to newspapers.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #42 on: October 27, 2016, 08:21:34 AM »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

Trump’s team... built a model, the “Battleground Optimizer Path to Victory,” to weight and rank the states that the data team believes are most critical to amassing the 270 electoral votes Trump needs to win the White House. On Oct. 18 they rank as follows:

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Pennsylvania
4. North Carolina
5. Georgia
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #43 on: October 28, 2016, 08:43:12 AM »

Another event could swing both to the extremes, Trump@38, Clinton @48.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #44 on: October 31, 2016, 08:43:34 PM »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html

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HillOfANight
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« Reply #45 on: October 31, 2016, 09:35:15 PM »

The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #46 on: November 06, 2016, 10:12:43 AM »

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan
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