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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64997 times)
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #250 on: October 07, 2016, 10:40:20 pm »

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376

I want to see a Utah poll next week
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dspNY
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« Reply #251 on: October 08, 2016, 12:22:13 am »

Link.

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread
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heatcharger
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« Reply #252 on: October 08, 2016, 12:23:58 am »

Link.

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread

My mistake. Thanks.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #253 on: October 08, 2016, 12:32:48 am »

I won't be happy unless tomorrow's flash poll is Clinton +24.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #254 on: October 09, 2016, 03:53:14 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

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Arch
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« Reply #255 on: October 09, 2016, 03:54:05 pm »


Oh my goodness
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #256 on: October 09, 2016, 03:56:42 pm »


Mondale territory?
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dspNY
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« Reply #257 on: October 09, 2016, 04:44:23 pm »


If he's at 70%...if he's at 79% he's probably a point worse than Bob Dole's defeat in 1996 (something like Clinton +10)
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #258 on: October 09, 2016, 04:55:48 pm »

Mondale was at 74%.


http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1984/
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #259 on: October 09, 2016, 05:33:57 pm »

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
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Ebsy
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« Reply #260 on: October 09, 2016, 05:38:35 pm »

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #261 on: October 09, 2016, 05:47:29 pm »

Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #262 on: October 09, 2016, 05:49:34 pm »


Yup. Jesus ing Christ, guys, the landslide might be happening.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #263 on: October 09, 2016, 07:47:10 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!
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cinyc
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« Reply #264 on: October 09, 2016, 07:59:19 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #265 on: October 09, 2016, 10:57:03 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.

But their methods, robo polling, has an R lean this cycle. No interviews in Spanish and no live callers, so it's not like they would methodologically favor D's.
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cinyc
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« Reply #266 on: October 09, 2016, 11:34:18 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.

But their methods, robo polling, has an R lean this cycle. No interviews in Spanish and no live callers, so it's not like they would methodologically favor D's.

When selectively releasing poll info for private pollsters, it's all about the special sauce pollsters use to achieve the result.  For example, is PPP's reported result before or after pushing voters against Trump after message testing for their client?  Is the turnout model what most expect or the best-case-scenario for their client?  What state are they polling?  A state with a lot of moderate Republicans and NeverTrumpers like Utah or a state with a lot of Trump supporters?

There's also no reason a robo-poller can't poll in Spanish (press 2 for Spanish is perfectly possible), and no evidence that not polling in Spanish even matters in the state polled for their client.
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Monstro
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« Reply #267 on: October 10, 2016, 12:53:59 am »

Democrats quickly ramping up their internal polling across the board:


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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html
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dspNY
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« Reply #268 on: October 10, 2016, 08:21:45 am »

Democrats quickly ramping up their internal polling across the board:


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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html

Clinton's internals are showing a big national lead and she wants to see how far into red territory it extends
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dspNY
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« Reply #269 on: October 10, 2016, 11:32:35 am »

Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #270 on: October 10, 2016, 12:03:30 pm »

Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"

Correlates with PPP as well... wow.
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swf541
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« Reply #271 on: October 10, 2016, 01:01:59 pm »

https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosaDC/status/785315386111721472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Schmidt on Senate numbers from GOP internals......
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Arch
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« Reply #272 on: October 10, 2016, 01:05:05 pm »


Bruh. I look forward to Senator Kander on top of Feingold.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #273 on: October 10, 2016, 02:03:25 pm »

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https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864
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Maxwell
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« Reply #274 on: October 10, 2016, 02:05:36 pm »

*gasp*

very spooky numbers for the GOP.

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