Illinois: Clinton +17

[psychprofessor]

Hillary dominating with Blacks and Hispanics

Blacks: 84/6
Latino: 71/14
Whites: 41/43 Trump

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/July2016IllinoisPresidential.pdf

[Classic Conservative]

Decimals

[dspNY]

Matches 2012 Obama margin in IL

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

But I thought Trump said he could put IL in play.......

[Erich Maria Remarque]

But I thought Trump said he could put IL in play.......

You were delusional.
But in March was Hillary +25 according to Marist poll

[Lief 🗽]

Great honor!!

[ElectionsGuy]

What's weird here is that Johnson is pulling more from Republicans than Independents and more from olds than youngs. That's very contrary to other polling.

And my god they didn't poll the senate race...

[Seriously?]

But I thought Trump said he could put IL in play.......

And I could win the lottery. Trump can't say, "I am going to get my ass kicked in Illinois," as Hillary! can't say "I am going to get throttled in Wyoming." But that doesn't stop reality.

If Trump even makes Illinois close, he wins in a landslide.

[pbrower2a]

But I thought Trump said he could put IL in play.......

You were delusional.
But in March was Hillary +25 according to Marist poll

We are starting to see many three-way polls. The reality may be more like elections involving Bill Clinton than those involving Barack Obama. 

[Xing]

But muh trend R whites, muh trend R Midwest, muh no more home state advantage...

Illinois is Safe D, period.

[ill ind]

It will be interesting to see how this plays down ballot.  Not only in the Kirk-Duckworth race, but in the Comptroller race,  the 10th CD (the only competitive congressional race imho) and in the legislative races.  The GOP governor has put $5 mil into flipping legislative seats with plenty more to come.
1 Senate seat and 0 house seats flipped in 2014.  Perhaps there will be a split where the GOP picks up down state but loses ground in the suburbs where Trump may not appeal so well.

[Wells]

If you plug the numbers into a demographic calculator:

Clinton/Kaine 347 52.0%
Trump/Pence 191 46.2%

[Gustaf]

If you plug the numbers into a demographic calculator:

Clinton/Kaine 347 52.0%
Trump/Pence 191 46.2%

How? By my estimation this would imply something like a 57-42 landslide? Or are you taking into account some sort of Illinois white D bias?

[Wells]

If you plug the numbers into a demographic calculator:

Clinton/Kaine 347 52.0%
Trump/Pence 191 46.2%

How? By my estimation this would imply something like a 57-42 landslide? Or are you taking into account some sort of Illinois white D bias?

Yes. IL whites (actually IL Hispanics and blacks, too) vote to the left of the national average quite substantially.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Don't all of its racial demographics do that?

[RINO Tom]

What's weird here is that Johnson is pulling more from Republicans than Independents and more from olds than youngs. That's very contrary to other polling.

And my god they didn't poll the senate race...

I'd imagine IL Republicans would be a bit more socially liberal than the national party average, and IL's Democratic Party isn't exactly the DLC, so this isn't that shocking.  Hardly scientific, but in the 2016 IL Republican primaries, 58% of voters said they lived in a suburb, and I'd guess suburban Republicans are more socially moderate than rural ones?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The  Land of Lincoln renders its verdict! Beautiful!