NBC/WSJ National: Clinton leads by 5

[heatcharger]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-conventions/poll-clinton-keeps-5-point-lead-over-trump-heading-conventions-n610966


Clinton 46
Trump 41

Clinton 41
Trump 35
Johnson 11
Stein 6

Poll taken July 9-13

[RJEvans]

For comparison, it's not change from their June numbers in the horserace, but a swing of Clinton +1 to Clinton +6 in the four-way race. Clinton gains 3, Trump loses 3, Johnson gains 1, Stein the same.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/754664448414003201

Clinton leads 48-40 among 13 swing states.

If she's doing better in those 13 swing states than she is nationally, that's a problem for Trump.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/754664448414003201

Clinton leads 48-40 among 13 swing states.

If she's doing better in those 13 swing states than she is nationally, that's a problem for Trump.

This poll has n=1000.

So "13 swing states" means something like 200 people polled.

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/754664448414003201

Clinton leads 48-40 among 13 swing states.

If she's doing better in those 13 swing states than she is nationally, that's a problem for Trump.

This poll has n=1000.

So "13 swing states" means something like 200 people polled.

Do the 13 swing states include bluer ones like PA, WI, MI or do they include redder ones like AZ, GA and MO

[Seriously?]

Anyone find a link to the cross-tabs for this poll? I've found the ABC and CNN ones, but nothing for NBC and I don't have a subscription to the WSJ.

[Gass3268]

Anyone find a link to the cross-tabs for this poll? I've found the ABC and CNN ones, but nothing for NBC and I don't have a subscription to the WSJ.

It usually takes NBC about a day to release their crosstabs, for whatever reason.

[Xing]

TNV, is this election Safe D again?

[psychprofessor]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  1h1 hour ago
And at 5:00pm ET, we will be releasing our numbers on race relations, immigration and trade

 Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  1h1 hour ago
At noon ET, we will be releasing our full NBC/WSJ/Telemundo oversample of Latino voters (English + Spanish interviews)

I'm interested to see the Latino voters sample...

[psychprofessor]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  3h3 hours ago
Trump’s fav/unfav rating is 27%/60% (-33), worst score for a nominee heading into the conventions; Clinton's 34%/56% (-22) isn’t far behind

[psychprofessor]

new NBC/WSJ poll: Trump leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among whites. Romney beat Obama among whites by 20 percentage points

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump among Latinos by 76%-14%, and Latinos report equal interest in the election as whites do

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump by 62 percentage points among Latinos. Obama's 2012 margin over Romney among Latinos was 44%

[dspNY]

new NBC/WSJ poll: Trump leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among whites. Romney beat Obama among whites by 20 percentage points

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump among Latinos by 76%-14%, and Latinos report equal interest in the election as whites do

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump by 62 percentage points among Latinos. Obama's 2012 margin over Romney among Latinos was 44%

DOMINANTE!!! GRAN ENCUESTA!

[heatcharger]

Anyone find a link to the cross-tabs for this poll? I've found the ABC and CNN ones, but nothing for NBC and I don't have a subscription to the WSJ.

http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/16495NBCWSJJuly2016Poll9am.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

new NBC/WSJ poll: Trump leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among whites. Romney beat Obama among whites by 20 percentage points

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump among Latinos by 76%-14%, and Latinos report equal interest in the election as whites do

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump by 62 percentage points among Latinos. Obama's 2012 margin over Romney among Latinos was 44%

I don't get how Clinton is doing much better than Obama among whites and Hispanics and still only leading by about Obama's 2012 margin?

[heatcharger]

Some interesting favorables:

Bernie Sanders: 45/32 (+13)
FBI: 40/27 (+13)
Barack Obama: 50/41 (+9)
Elizabeth Warren: 26/25 (+1)
George W. Bush: 38/40 (-2) way too high
Democratic Party: 39/41 (-2)
Bill Clinton: 37/42 (-5)
Hillary Clinton: 34/56 (-22)
Donald Trump: 27/60 (-33)

[psychprofessor]

new NBC/WSJ poll: Trump leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among whites. Romney beat Obama among whites by 20 percentage points

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump among Latinos by 76%-14%, and Latinos report equal interest in the election as whites do

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump by 62 percentage points among Latinos. Obama's 2012 margin over Romney among Latinos was 44%

I don't get how Clinton is doing much better than Obama among whites and Hispanics and still only leading by about Obama's 2012 margin?

Their sample is 75% white in the cross tabs. Also, Hispanics are lower as a percentage versus 2012.

[Holmes]

Conspiracy: the media is publishing polls with a very high white percentage to show more pro-Trump numbers so that he doesn't drop out before the convention/the delegates don't throw him out.

[Linus Van Pelt]

new NBC/WSJ poll: Trump leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among whites. Romney beat Obama among whites by 20 percentage points

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump among Latinos by 76%-14%, and Latinos report equal interest in the election as whites do

 John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  3h3 hours ago
new NBC/WSJ poll: Clinton leads Trump by 62 percentage points among Latinos. Obama's 2012 margin over Romney among Latinos was 44%

I don't get how Clinton is doing much better than Obama among whites and Hispanics and still only leading by about Obama's 2012 margin?

Harwood is comparing the 2012 exit poll to his poll results. This has two issues.

One is that the exit poll has no undecided, whereas the poll has some undecided, so measuring by "points" will show larger margins in the exit poll even if the rations among decided voters are the same.

The other is that there's a lot of evidence that the 2012 exit poll overestimated the Hispanic portion of the electorate, and that the electorate was actually whiter than in the exit poll. The NYTimes had an article about this a while ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?src=twr

This is somewhat long and technical, but one of the main points is that - somewhat surprisingly - the exit poll is not weighted by race in sample precinct selection:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Really, given the fiascos with exit polling in the recent primaries, it's weird how much of the media still seems to take the racial breakdowns from the 2012 exit poll as complete gospel.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Really, given the fiascos with exit polling in the recent primaries, it's weird how much of the media still seems to take the racial breakdowns from the 2012 exit poll as complete gospel.

What do you mean?
Would you post a link, please?

[IceSpear]

LOL @ a 75% white sample.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Really, given the fiascos with exit polling in the recent primaries, it's weird how much of the media still seems to take the racial breakdowns from the 2012 exit poll as complete gospel.

What do you mean?
Would you post a link, please?

Meh, maybe "fiascos" is too strong. But they generally get adjusted after the fact when the initial exit polls don't match the actual result.

[Seriously?]

D+8 sample suggests that the numbers should be compared to 2008 Obama and not 2012. Notating for correlation between the polls, not attempting to skew.