ABC/Washington Post National: Clinton leads by 4
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:53:28 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  ABC/Washington Post National: Clinton leads by 4
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: ABC/Washington Post National: Clinton leads by 4  (Read 1032 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 17, 2016, 08:23:53 AM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-holds-narrow-lead-over-trump-on-eve-of-conventions/2016/07/17/cde98210-4b78-11e6-bdb9-701687974517_story.html

Among registered voters:
Clinton 47
Trump 43

Among all adults:
Clinton 50
Trump 40
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2016, 08:28:28 AM »

4-way:

All adults:

45% Clinton (+10)
35% Trump
  8% Johnson
  5% Stein

RV only:

42% Clinton (+4)
38% Trump
  8% Johnson
  5% Stein

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-national-poll-july-11-14/2061
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 10:42:28 AM »

Clinton leads Trump by 7 points among LVs in this poll, another data point indicating that the usual LV advantage Republicans normally have is either neutral or slightly favors Clinton this year.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 10:47:09 AM »

Clinton leads Trump by 7 points among LVs in this poll, another data point indicating that the usual LV advantage Republicans normally have is either neutral or slightly favors Clinton this year.

A superior ground game would lead to that kind of advantage. Clinton's GOTV operations are far superior to Trump's at this stage
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2016, 10:52:19 AM »

Clinton leads Trump by 7 points among LVs in this poll, another data point indicating that the usual LV advantage Republicans normally have is either neutral or slightly favors Clinton this year.

A superior ground game would lead to that kind of advantage. Clinton's GOTV operations are far superior to Trump's at this stage

Yep.  This is also what happens when you have a Republican candidate that is so repellent to the college educated when compared to previous Republican candidates.  Educated citizens vote.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2016, 11:05:04 AM »

Clinton leads Trump by 7 points among LVs in this poll, another data point indicating that the usual LV advantage Republicans normally have is either neutral or slightly favors Clinton this year.

What's the 4-way lead among LVs? OT should have included it. RVs is a bit useless, adults even moreso.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2016, 11:07:38 AM »

Hillary up 4 with RV; 7 with LV and 10 with all adults...
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2016, 11:30:59 AM »

Clinton leads Trump by 7 points among LVs in this poll, another data point indicating that the usual LV advantage Republicans normally have is either neutral or slightly favors Clinton this year.

What's the 4-way lead among LVs? OT should have included it. RVs is a bit useless, adults even moreso.

I'm not seeing the LV numbers in the crosstabs.  All I'm going by is this sentence in the Langer Research press release:  Winnowing to likely voters, the race goes to a 7-point edge for Clinton.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2016, 12:15:29 PM »

Hillary up 4 with RV; 7 with LV and 10 with all adults...

It is unlikely that Hillary would have a larger lead in a poll of likely voters, than in a poll of registered voters.

Something is wrong with their LV screen.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2016, 02:02:49 PM »

Hillary up 4 with RV; 7 with LV and 10 with all adults...

It is unlikely that Hillary would have a larger lead in a poll of likely voters, than in a poll of registered voters.

Something is wrong with their LV screen.


It's been occurring more frequently this year, probably because she is doing much better with educated folks who are more likely to vote and be registered to vote.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2016, 02:09:00 PM »

This is a return to reality from their last poll.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2016, 02:44:58 PM »

Hillary up 4 with RV; 7 with LV and 10 with all adults...

It is unlikely that Hillary would have a larger lead in a poll of likely voters, than in a poll of registered voters.

Something is wrong with their LV screen.


It's been occurring more frequently this year, probably because she is doing much better with educated folks who are more likely to vote and be registered to vote.
Much better? I thought it was about 55 vs 45 to Hillary, wasn't it?
But yes, we have to get use to, that Hillary may be doing better among LV than RV.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2016, 02:46:42 PM »

Hillary up 4 with RV; 7 with LV and 10 with all adults...

It is unlikely that Hillary would have a larger lead in a poll of likely voters, than in a poll of registered voters.

Something is wrong with their LV screen.


It's been occurring more frequently this year, probably because she is doing much better with educated folks who are more likely to vote and be registered to vote.
Much better? I thought it was about 55 vs 45 to Hillary, wasn't it?
But yes, we have to get use to, that Hillary may be doing better among LV than RV.

yes, this is the first time since polling has measured white college educated voters that the DEM candidate is leading
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2016, 02:51:11 PM »

Hillary up 4 with RV; 7 with LV and 10 with all adults...

It is unlikely that Hillary would have a larger lead in a poll of likely voters, than in a poll of registered voters.

Something is wrong with their LV screen.


It's been occurring more frequently this year, probably because she is doing much better with educated folks who are more likely to vote and be registered to vote.
Much better? I thought it was about 55 vs 45 to Hillary, wasn't it?
But yes, we have to get use to, that Hillary may be doing better among LV than RV.

yes, this is the first time since polling has measured white college educated voters that the DEM candidate is leading

I'll believe it when I see it.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2016, 03:32:05 PM »

Hillary up 4 with RV; 7 with LV and 10 with all adults...

It is unlikely that Hillary would have a larger lead in a poll of likely voters, than in a poll of registered voters.

Something is wrong with their LV screen.


It's been occurring more frequently this year, probably because she is doing much better with educated folks who are more likely to vote and be registered to vote.
Much better? I thought it was about 55 vs 45 to Hillary, wasn't it?
But yes, we have to get use to, that Hillary may be doing better among LV than RV.

yes, this is the first time since polling has measured white college educated voters that the DEM candidate is leading

I'll believe it when I see it.


Lucky for you, cross-tabs are readily available.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2016, 02:19:23 PM »

D+10 with adults (irrelevant); D+6 with RV, suggesting turnout somewhere between 2008 and 2012.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 12 queries.