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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  VA: Hampton University: Clinton and Trump tied (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA: Hampton University: Clinton and Trump tied  (Read 3325 times)
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
United States

« on: July 16, 2016, 11:57:25 pm »

Honestly, looking at the crosstabs, they weren't even trying with this poll. Equal party ID and 54% men. That's right. 2012 exit polls had it at 53% women to 47% men, but the great pollsters at Hampton University have discovered that 14% of Virginia's women have changed sexes in the last 4 years.

While unlikely, it's not out of question:

If males are more motivated to vote this year than women, it could produce an electorate that is overall more male than female.

For example if 51% of the population is female and they only have 55% turnout, while males (49%) have 65% turnout, you could get the electorate that the poll shows.

But yeah, that's still unlikely.

With Trump and Pence, women will be motivated to vote. Especially black and latina women. I actually think Colorado and Virginia are lost causes for Trump. He needs Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, etc...I don't think he gets it, but that's where he should be focusing.
I remain amazed at how some on here think that Virginia has so radically shifted that it is no longer the same very, very slightly leaning Republican bellwether state that it was in the past three or four elections.

Even if it slightly skews Democrat this cycle, it's not skewing by 7%, no matter how much red and faux blue avatars hate Trump.
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