USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2

[Gass3268]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?

No, I can't find any

Well if they are accurate then it is scary for Democrats because the RNC by any objective opinion was a disaster.

Did you really expect for Trump not to get at least a small bump from his convention?

[Gass3268]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Movin' On Up!

[Gass3268]

In 538's polls-only forecast, they adjust this poll to usually 5 points more for Clinton.

Yup, when she was up by about 4 hear they did reduce that down to a 4 point addition. Today it's only a 3 point addition. I wonder what their methodology is here.

[Gass3268]

Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.

Really if you look at the current polling averages, Clinton is back to her post-primary/pre-Commey numbers of around a 6-5% lead. Pre-convention numbers were not that great for Clinton, she was around 3-4%.

As long as we keep hearing stories of GOP officials in NC and PA freaking out about their own internal polls showing double digit deficits and RNC rumblings of having congressional running ads that say they will be a check on a President Clinton, I'm not worried.  

[Gass3268]

No update?

[Gass3268]

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Well, someone ought to play the role of poll-truther now that JJ and krazey left Atlas.

JJ is actually back.

[Gass3268]

Exhibit A why this poll is junk:

One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

[Gass3268]

Exhibit A why this poll is junk:

One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
If the USC/LAT poll were weighted normally, Clinton lead. Instead, a 19 year old black Trump voter is weighted 30x

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/786248405227941888

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This poll is trash!

[Gass3268]

CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election

Smerconish is dumb because this poll has never existed until this year. What they do is they weight their results to match previous election results, which is an extremely dubious practice because real Romney voters may not say they voted for him or maybe even say they voted for Obama, which means they overweight Romney voters and underweight real Obama voters.

It was built with help by the RAND people, but the actual RAND poll this year currently has Clinton +10.