USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (user search)
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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 84835 times)
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,367
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW
« on: August 05, 2016, 07:43:35 AM »

That's also not true. A poll that is consistently biased in favor of one candidate, but is otherwise very precise (that is, less noisy than others), is actually significantly more useful than a poll that has no bias but very low precision (swings wildly due to noise). If that's the case with this particular poll, then it is very meaningful as long as you sufficiently account for the bias.
I agree, this is very useful for seeing trends due to them pollling the same people over and over. So the question is how big the Trump bias is. Trump was ahead by 7 in this poll, but he was arguably never ahead by more than a point or so based on polls in general. Would it be excessive to give this poll a Trump +6 house effect? If we did that then Clinton would be at +7 right now, which seems fairly close to the overall polls right now.
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BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,367
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2016, 03:03:23 AM »

That was a bit unexpected.
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BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,367
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW
« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2016, 08:46:02 AM »

It's obvious this poll is complete junk. Not sure why the LA Times would ruin its reputation by continuing to publish it
From a scientific point of view I hope they continue with the same methodology all the way through so that later we can better evaluate the merits/issues with this way of doing things.
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BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,367
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2016, 03:47:16 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/11) Clinton +0.4%
Clinton: 44.4% (+1.1)
Trump: 44.0% (-1.3)
The last holdout falls!
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BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,367
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2016, 02:21:17 AM »

I guess the 19 year old black man from Illinois is back in the sample?
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