USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2

[john cage bubblegum]

This is like the RAND/American Life Panel tracking poll from 2012 that surveyed the same group of people.  Even if the topline is questionable, it could be good for tracking trends. 

I wonder if RAND itself is going to be doing it again this cycle.

[john cage bubblegum]

If you look carefully, Clinton had a huge jump exactly one week ago, which likely means she got an outlier (for this poll) day in her favor.  For a little while it looked this poll was coming in line with other national polls, but that favorable Clinton day has fallen off, and this poll is fully back to having its usual significant Trump bias.  

It looks like Trump got an outlier day on the 16th, so in four days expect to see a Clinton jump in the 7-day rolling average.

[john cage bubblegum]

There was a time when this survey/poll was good for observing trends; you just had to realize it was about 5-6 points too friendly to Trump.  But lately it doesn't even seem to be good for looking at trends.  It's basically remained steady since mid-September despite a clear shift in the race since then.