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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 65002 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: July 26, 2016, 02:22:34 pm »

Lol Trump does not lead by more among Whites than Clinton does among Hispanics.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2016, 02:42:24 pm »

It never fails to amaze me how statistically illiterate people here are when all we do all day is analyze polls.

Well if we assume an MOE of +-4%, we can add 4 to Clinton and subtract 4 from Trump. Ok now Clinton's leading by 3 so we're looking good so far but we're not done yet. If we assume 95% confidence, we can take another 5% confidence points off Trump and Clinton's now leading by 8 points. So really, this poll says Clinton leads by 8.

-StatesPoll's evil twin brother
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2016, 10:30:49 am »

It really is interesting how this poll has consistently come up with numbers always about 6 or 7 points more Trump leaning than the average.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2016, 09:51:51 am »

Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2016, 08:25:50 am »

In 538's polls-only forecast, they adjust this poll to usually 5 points more for Clinton.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2016, 02:18:30 pm »


I'd be fine with it except for the fact that it's throwing off the RCP average.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2016, 02:40:31 pm »

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2016, 02:21:48 am »

YUGE swing coming.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2016, 11:08:29 am »

Oh I had misread that as you trying to adjust the rolling numbers for accuracy, not for individual dates.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2016, 04:03:04 pm »

8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.

I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2016, 07:11:28 am »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 Grin

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out


You're an unusual poster you know that?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2016, 04:53:15 pm »

There is no discrepancy. Mallow's example numbers are all from one day earlier than their Seriously counterpart. The confusion in Mallow's post is that LAT publishes, for example, its 10/17-10/23 on 10/24. The numbers on the site have not been changed.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2016, 05:34:08 am »

No matter what happens, one group of pollsters is going to feel pretty stupid in about a week.
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