USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2

[IceSpear]

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again.

Ratings change: Safe D  --> Safe R

Actually, it would be Safe R if Trump led by 1 point. The fact that he leads by 3 makes it Super Ultra Mega Rock Solid R.

[IceSpear]

The internals are legitimately bad (dive in and look) whereas Reuters aren't.

I'm not sure about now, but before Reuters had ridiculous Democratic registration advantages. Like D+15 at one point I think. They're dreadful.

[IceSpear]

There's no logical reason for this election to be close, yes. But it is. As distressing as that may be we shouldn't nitpick about crosstabs, while sticking our heads in the sand and ignoring the broader trend. I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

There's little we can do to impact the outcome of the election, but no good will come out of dismissing or ignoring the polls we don't like; God willing, this won't haplen, but if we continue in this manner, we on the Atlas may be in for a devastating shock on election day-- despite the polls having forcasted it.

There is a logical reason for it to be close: 45% of the country will vote for any Republican under any circumstances, and convention bounces almost always happen. Seriously, how can people who have been around the block for many elections be SURPRISED by a convention bounce? I genuinely do not get it.

As for RCP, it is a good source that I use, but it is objectively a right wing site. Their editorials are like 90% conservative. They try not to screw with the data too much, which is nice, but there are definitely times every once in a while when they have their thumb on the scale.

[IceSpear]

Guys, just let them cling to their junk tracking "poll" that doesn't even have a random sample and flies in the face of all other available evidence. For the Trumpets, it's like finally getting a piece of moldy bread after starving for a month.

[IceSpear]

Poor Seriously. lol

[IceSpear]

Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?

I thought he moved to Colorado.

Lol, I think he's back now.

[IceSpear]

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

[IceSpear]

LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html …

Makes perfect sense.

LA Times: "We know our poll is pure junk, but there's no point in cancelling it now since it's already paid for."