USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 83744 times)
TC 25
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« Reply #675 on: November 01, 2016, 12:55:54 PM »

Trump has the momentum.  Can he take it over the top in the next 7 days? That's the big question right now.

The nonsense of a Clinton 350-400 EV landslide has long passed.   I have a hard time seeing Clinton get to 300 in any scenario.

A Trump wave the next seven days could give him 300-325 EVs.
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Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #676 on: November 02, 2016, 03:28:20 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 05:32:17 AM by Dutch Conservative »

1/11: Trump +5.4

Trump: 47.8 (+0.9)
Clinton: 42.4 (- 0.9)

Trumps numbers are within the >95% confidence zone.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #677 on: November 02, 2016, 05:34:08 AM »

No matter what happens, one group of pollsters is going to feel pretty stupid in about a week.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #678 on: November 02, 2016, 05:39:29 AM »

No matter what happens, one group of pollsters is going to feel pretty stupid in about a week.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #679 on: November 02, 2016, 05:55:12 AM »

I like the trend line.
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Person Man
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« Reply #680 on: November 03, 2016, 06:43:56 AM »

Donald 47.5
Hillary 42.5

So T+5 today.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #681 on: November 03, 2016, 08:36:26 AM »


The accuracy of this poll will go down in history as absolutely horrible.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #682 on: November 03, 2016, 08:38:32 AM »

If that obscure individual is back on Trump's side, is the 6 point inaccuracy still the conclusion? Or has the game changed?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #683 on: November 03, 2016, 09:02:38 AM »

If that obscure individual is back on Trump's side, is the 6 point inaccuracy still the conclusion? Or has the game changed?

He is not. When he is, it gives like 20% swing among Blacks towards Trump, and MOE of Blacks becomes huge. It seems not being a case right now.
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cinyc
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« Reply #684 on: November 04, 2016, 02:21:45 AM »

11/3: Trump +3.5
Trump 46.9 (-0.6)
Clinton 43.4 (+0.9)
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peterthlee
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« Reply #685 on: November 04, 2016, 02:26:55 AM »

For this thread, I'm not looking for the garbage numbers; though the trend line could be a good indicator of what's happening in the Election Cycle.
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pikachu
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« Reply #686 on: November 04, 2016, 02:32:22 AM »

As a Bruin and Hillary supporter, I'd so love this poll to end up being complete junk on election day.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #687 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:55 AM »

Freedom trend!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #688 on: November 04, 2016, 07:05:44 AM »

Where is Trump's tremendous African American guy, when we need him. Hope that police didn't shot him down Sad
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cinyc
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« Reply #689 on: November 05, 2016, 02:33:49 AM »

11/4: Trump +5.4
Trump 48.0 (+1.1)
Clinton 42.6 (-0.8)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #690 on: November 05, 2016, 02:37:01 AM »

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.
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Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #691 on: November 05, 2016, 02:42:15 AM »

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

But surely you do give them some credit for holding on to their model? 99% chance it's an outlier, but there is this 1% chance...
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #692 on: November 05, 2016, 02:48:12 AM »

This poll makes zogby seem reliable.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #693 on: November 05, 2016, 02:48:38 AM »

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

But surely you do give them some credit for holding on to their model? 99% chance it's an outlier, but there is this 1% chance...

I respect anyone prepared to make a fool of themselves.
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RFayette
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« Reply #694 on: November 05, 2016, 03:46:30 AM »

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

Eh, Gallup used to be seen as the a solute gold standard of the industry.  No one has ever thought that of the LA Times, and only diehard political junkies like us have even heard of its tracker.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #695 on: November 05, 2016, 04:25:02 AM »

their sample is more or less trump +6 and they know it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #696 on: November 05, 2016, 10:28:54 AM »

their sample is more or less trump +6 and they know it.
Or Trump +5 Tongue

But it is all about trends!
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #697 on: November 05, 2016, 10:39:28 AM »


yeah, they bescisally say: TIED

but their trendline is also "stranger" than others....too much movement.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #698 on: November 05, 2016, 11:08:17 AM »

I can't believe we are still worrying about this junk.
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cinyc
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« Reply #699 on: November 06, 2016, 03:07:28 AM »

11/5: Trump +5.6
Trump 48.2 (+0.2)
Clinton 42.6 (-)
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