USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 83819 times)
Dr. Arch
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« Reply #625 on: October 24, 2016, 08:32:54 AM »

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Ronnie
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« Reply #626 on: October 24, 2016, 08:34:53 AM »

Clinton actually did lead in this poll once before, but not by more than a fraction of a point, iirc.
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Mallow
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« Reply #627 on: October 24, 2016, 09:48:21 AM »

Clinton actually did lead in this poll once before, but not by more than a fraction of a point, iirc.

As far as I could tell, she has led by more than her current 1.3 points in this tracker at least three times:
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/8)
Clinton: 45.1 (+0.1%)
Trump: 43.4 (-0.4%)

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/10)
Clinton: 44.8 (-0.1%)
Trump: 43.3 (-0.2%)

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/23) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton: 45.3% (+1.1%)
Trump: 43.2% (-0.8%)



That's 1.7, 1.5, and 2.1. She also led by 1.1 in September:
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/7) Clinton +1.1%
Clinton: 44.5% (+0.4)
Trump: 43.4% (-0.4)

It will show as Clinton +2 due to rounding.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #628 on: October 25, 2016, 03:45:58 AM »

October 25
Clinton: 45% (-0.1)
Trump: 44.1% (+0.3)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #629 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:28 AM »

LOL, Seriously stopped posting this crappy poll the moment Hillary took the lead.
What a wuss.
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Mallow
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« Reply #630 on: October 25, 2016, 08:00:52 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 08:04:06 AM by Mallow »

Here's the link:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/

Clinton leads by 0.9% today, 45.0/44.1

Looks like I missed Clinton's biggest lead back in August. August 12: Clinton +4.7 (46.3/41.6)

That being said, the numbers from mid-August on the site don't match up with Seriously's numbers from earlier in this thread. Did they change their formula?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #631 on: October 25, 2016, 09:00:41 AM »

Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.
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cinyc
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« Reply #632 on: October 25, 2016, 12:20:22 PM »

Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.

I check the numbers for myself practically every day someone has posted them.  They are accurate at the time they were posted.
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SirMuxALot
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« Reply #633 on: October 25, 2016, 03:21:03 PM »

Desperate L.A. Times going back and changing their old numbers to avoid egg on their face on election day!  Sad!

Before yet another myth on this board becomes accepted truth, can anyone point to specific dates that don't match?

I spot checked the mid-August dates with Clinton's biggest lead and the latimes.com graph still matches exactly the Seriously? posts.  Take care not to mis-read the other poster who was reverse-engineering some single day numbers as the supposed tracking numbers.
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Mallow
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« Reply #634 on: October 25, 2016, 04:36:52 PM »

Desperate L.A. Times going back and changing their old numbers to avoid egg on their face on election day!  Sad!

Before yet another myth on this board becomes accepted truth, can anyone point to specific dates that don't match?

I spot checked the mid-August dates with Clinton's biggest lead and the latimes.com graph still matches exactly the Seriously? posts.  Take care not to mis-read the other poster who was reverse-engineering some single day numbers as the supposed tracking numbers.

See my replies on the previous page (replies numbered 643 and 646). Unless I'm misreading something (very possible), none of the four dates I quote have an apparent corollary on the LA Times site. Five examples are...
Date___LA Times___Seriously?
8/8____45.0/43.8___45.1/43.4
8/10___44.9/43.5___44.8/43.3
8/14___46.3/41.6___45.6/42.0
8/23___44.2/44.0___45.3/43.2
9/7____44.1/43.8___44.5/43.4

Most of the margins are similar, but some show a decent discrepancy (8/14: Clinton +4.7 vs. +3.6; 8/23: Clinton +0.2 vs. +1.9).

Is it possible the numbers on the LA Times site are daily and not 7-day averages, and Seriously? is calculating the 7-day averages manually? Or is the discrepancy caused by something else (change in methodology? Different source?). I am not suggesting Seriously? made up numbers by any means, I just want to know why there's an apparent discrepancy.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #635 on: October 25, 2016, 04:38:35 PM »

Yeah, Seriously was posting the numbers as they appeared at the time. LA Times must be revising them to avoid humiliation.
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cinyc
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« Reply #636 on: October 25, 2016, 04:47:40 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 04:51:44 PM by cinyc »

The Seriously? numbers you cited are exactly what is currently reported for those dates on USC's poll website.  Nothing is changed:

http://cesrusc.org/election/

What website are you looking at for LA Times results?  Your dates seem to be for the polling date that is one day before what is reported on the USC website.  There must be difference in what your site and USC is reporting as the poll date.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #637 on: October 25, 2016, 04:53:15 PM »

There is no discrepancy. Mallow's example numbers are all from one day earlier than their Seriously counterpart. The confusion in Mallow's post is that LAT publishes, for example, its 10/17-10/23 on 10/24. The numbers on the site have not been changed.
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Mallow
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« Reply #638 on: October 25, 2016, 04:53:53 PM »

The Seriously? numbers you cited are exactly what is currently reported for those dates on USC's poll website.  Nothing is changed:

http://cesrusc.org/election/

What website are you looking at for LA Times results?  Your dates seem to be for the polling date that is one day before what is reported on the USC website.

Odd that I didn't see that. I swear I checked "one day off" in both directions and it didn't match before, but you're right, the numbers I posted are "one day off". It's because I'm using this source:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/

That source seems to label the days one day later than your source. At least it makes sense now. Thanks for the clarification!
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #639 on: October 26, 2016, 04:49:28 AM »

10/25:

Trump - 45.3
Clinton - 44.2
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #640 on: October 26, 2016, 09:05:24 AM »

That is a big jump.  Did the Illinois guy get back in?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #641 on: October 26, 2016, 09:09:53 AM »

That is a big jump.  Did the Illinois guy get back in?
Not yeat, as I understood.
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Person Man
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« Reply #642 on: October 26, 2016, 09:19:16 AM »


On further inspection, I see numbers stable but Trump surging amongst the elderly.
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PollsDontLie
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« Reply #643 on: October 26, 2016, 09:25:29 AM »


A strong Clinton day probably fell off along with a decent Trump day rolling on.
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chrisras
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« Reply #644 on: October 26, 2016, 10:01:14 AM »

Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #645 on: October 26, 2016, 10:02:15 AM »

Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?
Trump's African American

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html
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Person Man
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« Reply #646 on: October 26, 2016, 10:02:43 AM »

Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?
The one weird kid in class who wears a sweater or tie every day.
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cinyc
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« Reply #647 on: October 27, 2016, 02:47:09 AM »

10/26: Trump +0.7
Trump - 45.2 (-0.1)
Clinton - 44.5 (+0.3)
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #648 on: October 27, 2016, 12:53:00 PM »

Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?

I thought he moved to Colorado.

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Seriously?
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« Reply #649 on: October 27, 2016, 01:19:54 PM »

Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.
And you effen realize why I gave up on you complete bunch of ungrateful losers. Any intimation that I cheated here is an absolute joke. You should be ashamed of yourself.
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