USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 83766 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #575 on: October 12, 2016, 09:02:08 AM »

Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?
Seriously? I am the one getting personally attacked here with your glee. Why? Because I am one of the few people that stands up to you red avatars.

I posted the result, without comment and responded to a ridiculous accusation that somehow I only homer when Trump is ahead in a poll, which I don't.

You don't stand up for anything. I'm sorry this isn't a safe space for mentally impaired racists like yourself but stop whining about it.

If you want to "stand up" to us then why don't you start by explaining how it's relevant that a non-native speaker makes a spelling error and show us some of those 2014 posts of yours that you bragged about?
I don't have to justify myself to you or any other of you nasty red avatars. Nor I do apologize for giving it back to someone who is NOT nice to me to begin with.

Don't expect me to not respond to a blatant personal attack. I obviously do not need a safe space if I am willing to engage people here.

Calling me "mentally impaired" and "racist" because I don't agree with your personal political views is taking it way too far, Moderator.

You think it is inappropriate for a moderator to call someone racist but it's appropriate for a president to say he likes to grab women by the p**y?

Because I'm just telling it how it is. If you wanna impose your PC censorship on me and demand a safe space maybe you should find another forum where you can be coddled.

Now, you still didn't say anything about those 2014 posts of yours. You said they would prove that you were right about the elections that year and prove what a great analyst you are. So where are they?
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Rand
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« Reply #576 on: October 12, 2016, 09:37:19 AM »

What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #577 on: October 12, 2016, 09:45:38 AM »

What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #578 on: October 12, 2016, 10:26:32 AM »

What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!

GRAVIS-TEXAS: Trump +1 (Nov. 4-5)

Thank you Texas! Great honor! #MAGA
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #579 on: October 12, 2016, 11:39:59 AM »

What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!

GRAVIS-TEXAS: Trump +1 (Nov. 4-5)

Thank you Texas! Great honor! #MAGA

WOWIE!  Outstanding polls all around this Wednesday!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #580 on: October 12, 2016, 11:54:38 AM »

Exhibit A why this poll is junk:

One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #581 on: October 12, 2016, 11:56:07 AM »


Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
If the USC/LAT poll were weighted normally, Clinton lead. Instead, a 19 year old black Trump voter is weighted 30x

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/786248405227941888
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Gass3268
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« Reply #582 on: October 12, 2016, 11:58:59 AM »


Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
If the USC/LAT poll were weighted normally, Clinton lead. Instead, a 19 year old black Trump voter is weighted 30x

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/786248405227941888

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This poll is trash!
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #583 on: October 12, 2016, 08:40:16 PM »

Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?

Seriously? I am the one getting personally attacked here with your glee. Why? Because I am one of the few people that stands up to you red avatars.

I posted the result, without comment and responded to a ridiculous accusation that somehow I only homer when Trump is ahead in a poll, which I don't.

Apparently Americans are like the honey badger. They don't give a s**t about this lame "pussygate."

Also, if we're correcting grammar, what in the world does "I only homer when Trump is ahead" mean anyway?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #584 on: October 13, 2016, 02:13:53 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/12) Trump +0.1%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.2)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #585 on: October 13, 2016, 02:21:04 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/12) Trump +0.1%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.2)


The Return of the Illinois Black Guy.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #586 on: October 13, 2016, 02:21:17 AM »

I guess the 19 year old black man from Illinois is back in the sample?
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #587 on: October 13, 2016, 08:20:15 AM »

No, if he went back in, it would have swung to Trump by several points.  This just looks like fluctuation.
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Wells
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« Reply #588 on: October 13, 2016, 05:46:54 PM »

It doesn't look like that Illinois guy is in the sample anymore, so I'll continue with the formula. But if he returns, I'll stop.

10/13 Trump +3
Trump 46% (+6)
Clinton 43% (-5)
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Person Man
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« Reply #589 on: October 14, 2016, 07:23:51 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/13) Hillary over the Donald +0.3%
Trump: 43.9% (-0.4)
Clinton: 44.2% (+0.3)
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #590 on: October 14, 2016, 02:13:49 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2016, 02:46:05 PM by @realJohnEwards »

If this dump shows them tied, Clinton has it in the bag.
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Wells
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« Reply #591 on: October 14, 2016, 02:22:05 PM »

10/13 Clinton +2
Clinton 45% (+2)
Trump 43% (-3)
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cinyc
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« Reply #592 on: October 15, 2016, 02:15:16 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/14)Sad Trump +0.1
Trump: 44.2% (+0.3)
Clinton: 44.1% (-0.1)
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Wells
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« Reply #593 on: October 15, 2016, 06:05:36 PM »

10/14 Trump +3
Trump 46% (+3)
Clinton 43% (-2)
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #594 on: October 15, 2016, 08:05:31 PM »

CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #595 on: October 15, 2016, 09:43:16 PM »

Doesn't matter if the Illinois black guy is in the sample or not. Any survey where people are regularly weighted up by huge amounts is not going to be reliable at all. If you have so many weighting categories that that is happening, you're a terrible polling firm. Typically anything over a weight of 4 would mean a heavily skewed sample. Anything over 10 would be unacceptable.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #596 on: October 15, 2016, 09:48:12 PM »

CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election

Smerconish is dumb because this poll has never existed until this year. What they do is they weight their results to match previous election results, which is an extremely dubious practice because real Romney voters may not say they voted for him or maybe even say they voted for Obama, which means they overweight Romney voters and underweight real Obama voters.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #597 on: October 15, 2016, 10:43:30 PM »

CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election

Smerconish is dumb because this poll has never existed until this year. What they do is they weight their results to match previous election results, which is an extremely dubious practice because real Romney voters may not say they voted for him or maybe even say they voted for Obama, which means they overweight Romney voters and underweight real Obama voters.

It was built with help by the RAND people, but the actual RAND poll this year currently has Clinton +10.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #598 on: October 16, 2016, 02:18:20 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/15) Trump +0.6%
Trump: 44.5% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.9% (-0.2)
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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #599 on: October 16, 2016, 06:05:01 PM »

10/15 Trump +3
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 43% (=)
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