USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:54:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 ... 29
Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 83669 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #300 on: August 31, 2016, 04:14:03 AM »

BEAUTIFUL!

Clinton in low 40s is my perception of the race. And we don't even add 5-10% of Shy Trump voters. Laaaaaandslide Grin
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #301 on: August 31, 2016, 09:36:24 AM »

Old Formula
Trump 47% (-5)
Clinton 40% (+5)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-4)
Clinton 41% (+3)
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #302 on: September 01, 2016, 02:13:36 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/31) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.5)

Sample size increases to 2,646.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #303 on: September 01, 2016, 03:31:54 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/31) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.5)

Sample size increases to 2,646.

THE TRUMP COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN!!!
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #304 on: September 01, 2016, 05:21:23 AM »

I assume this poll is online? Presumably people are more likely to tell a pollster that they are voting for Trump if it's via the internet rather than via the phone.
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #305 on: September 01, 2016, 05:47:10 AM »

Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #306 on: September 01, 2016, 06:11:33 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 06:14:17 AM by LittleBigOctopus »

Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them? Smiley



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think? Smiley
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #307 on: September 01, 2016, 08:35:03 AM »

Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them? Smiley



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think? Smiley
If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #308 on: September 01, 2016, 08:53:34 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 09:01:10 AM by LittleBigOctopus »

If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.
Yes, favs look delicious. It will probably show a really close race.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #309 on: September 01, 2016, 09:06:56 AM »

Nate Silver pratically "admits" that their model should have believed more to this pollster Smiley

He is also talking about red hacks = some readers Grin
Quote from: Restricted
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #310 on: September 02, 2016, 02:12:59 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/1) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.0% (-1.0)
Clinton: 43.3% (+0.9)
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #311 on: September 02, 2016, 02:18:54 AM »

Sad
Logged
TrumpCard
Rookie
**
Posts: 46
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #312 on: September 02, 2016, 02:40:52 AM »

I wouldn't look too much into close polls.  Trump needs to pick up OH and PA which the latter is brutally difficult with the Philadelphia vote. Having said that he needs to hang onto all of the center/right states.  His shortest path consists of PA, OH, and FL while holding onto NC.  Without PA he can still pick up CO, IA, and NH but that's uphill as well.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #313 on: September 02, 2016, 05:18:06 PM »

Old Formula
Clinton 49%
Trump 38%

New Formula
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #314 on: September 03, 2016, 02:12:05 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/2) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+1.3)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0)

Up to 2,711 respondents.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #315 on: September 03, 2016, 07:34:53 AM »

Smiley
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #316 on: September 03, 2016, 07:38:34 AM »

Old Formula
Trump 53% (+15)
Clinton 36% (-13)

New Formula
Trump 50% (+10)
Clinton 39% (-8)
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #317 on: September 03, 2016, 09:45:37 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/2) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+1.3)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0)

Up to 2,711 respondents.

Wow
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #318 on: September 04, 2016, 02:11:48 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/3) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.1)
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #319 on: September 04, 2016, 01:54:10 PM »

I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #320 on: September 04, 2016, 02:07:35 PM »

I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.

Yes this poll is basically junk.
Good only for trump supporters who need a "lift" to start each day with some morning-wood.
Think of it as being similar to "the little blue pill" ..... temporary mental (and physical) refreshment that quickly wears-off.
It seems that one person on Atlas, in particular, might be addicted to this drug.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #321 on: September 04, 2016, 08:10:53 PM »

Old Formula
Trump 43% (-10)
Clinton 43% (+7)

New Formula
Clinton 43% (+4)
Trump 43% (-7)
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #322 on: September 05, 2016, 02:17:06 AM »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 02:10:21 AM by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/4) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 44.7% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3)
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #323 on: September 05, 2016, 02:18:04 AM »

I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.

Yes this poll is basically junk.
Good only for trump supporters who need a "lift" to start each day with some morning-wood.
Think of it as being similar to "the little blue pill" ..... temporary mental (and physical) refreshment that quickly wears-off.
It seems that one person on Atlas, in particular, might be addicted to this drug.

No. It's a data point. Like all other data points that I post here, good or bad for Trump.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #324 on: September 05, 2016, 03:42:55 PM »

Old Formula
Clinton 45% (+2)
Trump 43% (+/-0)

New Formula
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 43% (+/-0)
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 ... 29  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 13 queries.