USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (Read 67268 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,240
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #250 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:18:30 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:15:30 PM
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
I'd be fine with it except for the fact that it's throwing off the RCP average.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
Posts: 739
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #251 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:23:57 PM »
Quote from: Castro on August 23, 2016, 02:18:30 PM
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:15:30 PM
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
I'd be fine with it except for the fact that it's throwing off the RCP average.
The RCP average has always been prone to bias in its polling averages, because of the way they choose which polls to include and which polls not to include. As nice as it would be to have a simple polling average that was not prone to bias (though I think that's what 538's "polls-only" forecast attempts to represent), it's simply not what RCP does (nor do they claim to). We should always keep that caveat in mind when analyzing their polling average.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #252 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:31:26 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:15:30 PM
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
Ahaha. Nate is saying EXACTLY what I've been saying for WEEKS.
Me ↓↓↓
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 17, 2016, 03:26:36 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on August 17, 2016, 02:43:18 PM
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a
liberal newspaper
.
You mean that liberal newspapers use a liberal methodologies in their liberal polls?
It is not really a poll. They use the same members all over again.
It means that such polls will have an inbuilt bias (it seems like it favors 5-6 pps towards Trump), but it will probably better on "catching trends"
(but with 7 day lagging).
Nate ↓↓↓
Quote from: Restricted
You must be
logged in
to read this quote.
Red hacks on this forum make me believe that Trump is not doing well enough with uneducated
Logged
Panda Express
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,559
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Trump +1.1
«
Reply #253 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:32:57 PM »
Quote from: Seriously? on August 23, 2016, 02:12:51 AM
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/22)
Clinton +0.2%
Clinton: 44.2% (+0.7%)
Trump: 44.0% (-0.6%)
The lead goes back to Clinton.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
Posts: 739
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #254 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:36:56 PM »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 23, 2016, 02:31:26 PM
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:15:30 PM
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
Ahaha. Nate is saying EXACTLY what I've been saying for WEEKS.
Me ↓↓↓
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 17, 2016, 03:26:36 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on August 17, 2016, 02:43:18 PM
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a
liberal newspaper
.
You mean that liberal newspapers use a liberal methodologies in their liberal polls?
It is not really a poll. They use the same members all over again.
It means that such polls will have an inbuilt bias (it seems like it favors 5-6 pps towards Trump), but it will probably better on "catching trends"
(but with 7 day lagging).
Nate ↓↓↓
Quote from: Restricted
You must be
logged in
to read this quote.
Red hacks on this forum make me believe that Trump is not doing well enough with uneducated
Not to get into a pissing contest, but since we're handing out kudos to ourselves, I'll point out that this has been my position for (actual) weeks (your quote is from six days ago). See the conversation that begins here, on July 29th.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240856.msg5187774#msg5187774
And I'm a proud "red hack"
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
Posts: 4,048
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #255 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:38:08 PM »
I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.
Clinton 48%
Trump 40%
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,240
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #256 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:40:31 PM »
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 23, 2016, 02:38:08 PM
I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.
Clinton 48%
Trump 40%
What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #257 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:46:01 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:36:56 PM
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 23, 2016, 02:31:26 PM
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:15:30 PM
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
Ahaha. Nate is saying EXACTLY what I've been saying for WEEKS.
Me ↓↓↓
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 17, 2016, 03:26:36 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on August 17, 2016, 02:43:18 PM
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a
liberal newspaper
.
You mean that liberal newspapers use a liberal methodologies in their liberal polls?
It is not really a poll. They use the same members all over again.
It means that such polls will have an inbuilt bias (it seems like it favors 5-6 pps towards Trump), but it will probably better on "catching trends"
(but with 7 day lagging).
Nate ↓↓↓
Quote from: Restricted
You must be
logged in
to read this quote.
Red hacks on this forum make me believe that Trump is not doing well enough with uneducated
Not to get into a pissing contest, but since we're handing out kudos to ourselves, I'll point out that this has been my position for (actual) weeks (your quote is from six days ago). See the conversation that begins here, on July 29th.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240856.msg5187774#msg5187774
And I'm a proud "red hack"
I'm sexy and I know it!
Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter!
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
Posts: 739
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #258 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:49:53 PM »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 23, 2016, 02:46:01 PM
I'm sexy and I know it!
Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter!
As a reasonable human being, if forced with the choice of being shot dead or voting for Trump, I would choose to be shot dead.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #259 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:56:17 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:49:53 PM
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 23, 2016, 02:46:01 PM
I'm sexy and I know it!
Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter!
As a reasonable human being, if forced with the choice of being shot dead or voting for Trump, I would choose to be shot dead.
Words hurt, you know!
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
Posts: 739
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #260 on:
August 23, 2016, 02:57:03 PM »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 23, 2016, 02:56:17 PM
Quote from: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:49:53 PM
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 23, 2016, 02:46:01 PM
I'm sexy and I know it!
Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter!
As a reasonable human being, if forced with the choice of being shot dead or voting for Trump, I would choose to be shot dead.
Words hurt, you know!
I do! Which is precisely why I could never support Trump.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,240
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #261 on:
August 24, 2016, 02:21:48 AM »
YUGE swing coming.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,065
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #262 on:
August 24, 2016, 02:27:09 AM »
Quote from: Castro on August 24, 2016, 02:21:48 AM
YUGE swing coming.
?
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #263 on:
August 24, 2016, 03:30:40 AM »
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/23)
Clinton +2.1%
Clinton: 45.3% (+1.1%)
Trump: 43.2% (-0.8%)
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,226
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #264 on:
August 24, 2016, 07:13:22 AM »
Trump is collapsing. Sad!
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #265 on:
August 24, 2016, 07:13:27 AM »
The trend is consistent with Ipsos
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
Posts: 4,048
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #266 on:
August 24, 2016, 10:21:00 AM »
8/23 Approximate Numbers
Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)
Quote from: Castro on August 23, 2016, 02:40:31 PM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 23, 2016, 02:38:08 PM
I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.
Clinton 48%
Trump 40%
What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on July 30, 2016, 02:38:25 PM
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day
approximately
shows (~ 300 sample):
Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=>
Trump
= 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 =
46%
Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=>
Clinton
= 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 =
48.3%
But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!
It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,494
Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #267 on:
August 24, 2016, 11:07:06 AM »
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on August 24, 2016, 07:13:27 AM
The trend is consistent with Ipsos
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,240
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #268 on:
August 24, 2016, 11:08:29 AM »
Oh I had misread that as you trying to adjust the rolling numbers for accuracy, not for individual dates.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,937
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/23 - Clinton +2.1
«
Reply #269 on:
August 24, 2016, 04:00:44 PM »
Poor Seriously. lol
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,240
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #270 on:
August 24, 2016, 04:03:04 PM »
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 24, 2016, 10:21:00 AM
8/23 Approximate Numbers
Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)
Quote from: Castro on August 23, 2016, 02:40:31 PM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 23, 2016, 02:38:08 PM
I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.
Clinton 48%
Trump 40%
What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on July 30, 2016, 02:38:25 PM
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day
approximately
shows (~ 300 sample):
Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=>
Trump
= 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 =
46%
Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=>
Clinton
= 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 =
48.3%
But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!
It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.
I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
Posts: 3,646
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
«
Reply #271 on:
August 24, 2016, 04:40:30 PM »
Quote from: Castro on August 24, 2016, 04:03:04 PM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 24, 2016, 10:21:00 AM
8/23 Approximate Numbers
Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)
Quote from: Castro on August 23, 2016, 02:40:31 PM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 23, 2016, 02:38:08 PM
I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.
Clinton 48%
Trump 40%
What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.
Quote from: LittleBigPlanet on July 30, 2016, 02:38:25 PM
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day
approximately
shows (~ 300 sample):
Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=>
Trump
= 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 =
46%
Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=>
Clinton
= 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 =
48.3%
But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!
It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.
I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.
Yes, the assumption is that dropped day is "average" one, which of course is not true. So we're actually kind of calculating difference between dropped day and new one. So Clinton's numbers today are +5 compared to the day exactly one week before. If I'm not completely wrong
Logged
nirvanayoda
Rookie
Posts: 87
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/23 - Clinton +2.1
«
Reply #272 on:
August 24, 2016, 05:34:51 PM »
The problem with trying to figure out each day is that you have to make an assumption about what the day that rolled off contained. I tried to do this for Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls in 2008 and realized that it was sort of pointless because the poll started with multiple days, so it was impossible to tell exactly what day rolled off.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,029
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/23 - Clinton +2.1
«
Reply #273 on:
August 25, 2016, 02:12:28 AM »
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/24)
Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.3% (-1.0%)
Trump: 44.0% (+0.8%)
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
Posts: 4,048
Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/24 - Clinton +0.3
«
Reply #274 on:
August 25, 2016, 06:02:17 AM »
Trump 49% (+11)
Clinton 38% (-14)
I'll try and come up with a new formula that takes into account the days dropping off.
Logged
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