USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 83733 times)
psychprofessor
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« Reply #175 on: August 04, 2016, 10:51:25 AM »

Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.
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Mallow
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« Reply #176 on: August 04, 2016, 11:19:30 AM »

Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.

I don't think it's meaningless at all. Indeed, this method is probably a stronger indicator of trends than standard polling, since the sample does not change. One just needs to be aware of the potential built-in bias inherent in the sample.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #177 on: August 04, 2016, 11:26:56 AM »

Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.

I don't think it's meaningless at all. Indeed, this method is probably a stronger indicator of trends than standard polling, since the sample does not change. One just needs to be aware of the potential built-in bias inherent in the sample.

It is indeed meaningless when used as a poll. That's what this thread is all about. We don't have a "trends" thread. And when looked at from the guise of a "poll" it shows a head heat. So, yes, this is meaningless when looked at as a poll.
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Mallow
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« Reply #178 on: August 04, 2016, 02:01:27 PM »

Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.

I don't think it's meaningless at all. Indeed, this method is probably a stronger indicator of trends than standard polling, since the sample does not change. One just needs to be aware of the potential built-in bias inherent in the sample.

It is indeed meaningless when used as a poll. That's what this thread is all about. We don't have a "trends" thread. And when looked at from the guise of a "poll" it shows a head heat. So, yes, this is meaningless when looked at as a poll.

That's also not true. A poll that is consistently biased in favor of one candidate, but is otherwise very precise (that is, less noisy than others), is actually significantly more useful than a poll that has no bias but very low precision (swings wildly due to noise). If that's the case with this particular poll, then it is very meaningful as long as you sufficiently account for the bias.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #179 on: August 04, 2016, 04:10:50 PM »

Wow, even this whacky pro Trump outlier now has Hillary ahead, sad!
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dspNY
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« Reply #180 on: August 05, 2016, 05:42:35 AM »

Clinton 45.2, Trump 44.6 in today's iteration
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #181 on: August 05, 2016, 07:43:35 AM »

That's also not true. A poll that is consistently biased in favor of one candidate, but is otherwise very precise (that is, less noisy than others), is actually significantly more useful than a poll that has no bias but very low precision (swings wildly due to noise). If that's the case with this particular poll, then it is very meaningful as long as you sufficiently account for the bias.
I agree, this is very useful for seeing trends due to them pollling the same people over and over. So the question is how big the Trump bias is. Trump was ahead by 7 in this poll, but he was arguably never ahead by more than a point or so based on polls in general. Would it be excessive to give this poll a Trump +6 house effect? If we did that then Clinton would be at +7 right now, which seems fairly close to the overall polls right now.
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« Reply #182 on: August 05, 2016, 09:51:08 AM »

With the trendline changes. Pretty much a wash.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/4)
Clinton: 45.2 (+0.4)
Trump: 44.6 (-0.4)
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« Reply #183 on: August 06, 2016, 02:13:58 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/5)
Clinton: 44.6 (-0.6%)
Trump: 44.2 (-0.4%)
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #184 on: August 06, 2016, 05:42:34 AM »

This poll needs a daybreak!
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« Reply #185 on: August 07, 2016, 02:13:41 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/6)
Clinton: 44.7 (+0.1%)
Trump: 44.0 (-0.2%)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #186 on: August 07, 2016, 02:15:22 AM »

What's wrong with their methodology? Their base consists of people who think their candidate's going to win at that moment?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #187 on: August 07, 2016, 02:34:57 AM »

I can understand the methodology, but I don't get why poll aggregates are using these when they're not really "polls" per se in the classic sense.
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« Reply #188 on: August 08, 2016, 12:55:16 PM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/7)
Clinton: 45.0 (+0.3%)
Trump: 43.8 (-0.2%)
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« Reply #189 on: August 09, 2016, 02:20:37 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/8)
Clinton: 45.1 (+0.1%)
Trump: 43.4 (-0.4%)
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« Reply #190 on: August 09, 2016, 02:42:44 AM »

So Trump is back to where he was before the RNC while Hillary sustained her decent DNC bounce. Sounds about right.
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« Reply #191 on: August 10, 2016, 02:13:24 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/9)
Clinton: 44.9 (-0.2%)
Trump: 43.5 (+0.1%)
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« Reply #192 on: August 11, 2016, 02:16:11 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/10)
Clinton: 44.8 (-0.1%)
Trump: 43.3 (-0.2%)
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« Reply #193 on: August 12, 2016, 02:16:58 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/11) Clinton +1.1%
Clinton: 44.2 (-0.6%)
Trump: 43.1 (-0.2%)
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #194 on: August 12, 2016, 08:25:50 AM »

In 538's polls-only forecast, they adjust this poll to usually 5 points more for Clinton.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #195 on: August 12, 2016, 08:29:50 AM »
« Edited: August 12, 2016, 08:31:27 AM by Gass3268 »

In 538's polls-only forecast, they adjust this poll to usually 5 points more for Clinton.

Yup, when she was up by about 4 hear they did reduce that down to a 4 point addition. Today it's only a 3 point addition. I wonder what their methodology is here.
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« Reply #196 on: August 13, 2016, 02:18:21 AM »

Either Clinton had a good day or this thing is finally realigning to where the other polls are.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/12) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton: 45.7% (+1.5%)
Trump: 42.2% (-0.9%)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #197 on: August 13, 2016, 02:19:17 AM »

Either Clinton had a good day or this thing is finally realigning to where the other polls are.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/12) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton: 45.7% (+1.5%)
Trump: 42.2% (-0.9%)
Or daily tracking is a poor way to monitor the election.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #198 on: August 13, 2016, 03:06:52 AM »

Biggest gain for Hillary since July 15. Its getting harder and harder for Trump surrogates to continue citing this poll
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King
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« Reply #199 on: August 13, 2016, 07:20:12 AM »

why are millenials so conservative in this sample? they made a huge mistake there and their concept doesn't allow for it to be corrected.
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