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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 64993 times)
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #375 on: September 14, 2016, 02:26:22 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Pepe will become a national symbol if trump becomes president
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #376 on: September 14, 2016, 02:36:46 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

As if that isn't enough of a red flag as to this poll's status.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #377 on: September 14, 2016, 04:06:31 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Pepe will become a national symbol if trump becomes president
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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #378 on: September 14, 2016, 05:28:05 am »

This new result will likely be a new equilibrium for the poll. We'll see probably another week of Trump prosperity unless something else changes (the one thing I can think of right now is the Newsweek cover). Anyway, the numbers:

Old Formula
Trump 52% (-4)
Clinton 37% (+4)

New Formula
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 40% (+3)
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Lok
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« Reply #379 on: September 14, 2016, 06:05:01 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

As if that isn't enough of a red flag as to this poll's status.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #380 on: September 14, 2016, 04:36:18 pm »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.

Um, okay.  That was eighteen years ago.  Not sure how that's relevant here and now.
Just as relevant as Trump's racist apartment policies...
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Seriously?
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« Reply #381 on: September 15, 2016, 02:16:54 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/14) Trump +5.9%
Trump: 47.2% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.3% (-0.7)

The free fall continues.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #382 on: September 15, 2016, 02:19:05 am »

The uncuckening of America has begun.......

But in all seriousness this trend is probably meaningless since the debates will probably reset whatever momentum either candidate has in this race
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Seriously?
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« Reply #383 on: September 15, 2016, 02:27:20 am »

The uncuckening of America has begun.......

But in all seriousness this trend is probably meaningless since the debates will probably reset whatever momentum either candidate has in this race
Unless there's a Nixon-Kennedy moment, debates generally do little in the grand scheme of things. The biggest challenge for this poll will be next Monday, when the Monday folks that really through this survey off get re-interviewed.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #384 on: September 15, 2016, 03:39:22 am »

Nice Smiley
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Seriously?
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« Reply #385 on: September 16, 2016, 02:12:36 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.4%
Trump: 47.4% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.3)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #386 on: September 16, 2016, 04:35:28 am »

It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #387 on: September 16, 2016, 05:12:09 am »

Old Formula
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 39% (+2)

New Formula
Trump 47% (-1)
Clinton 41% (+1)

The race send to be stabilizing around a mid-single digit Trump lead, which makes sense for a tossup race if you take into account the house effect.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #388 on: September 16, 2016, 03:31:05 pm »

It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #389 on: September 16, 2016, 03:58:55 pm »

It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.
No, 47.4% is his highest result, though he got the same numbers during the convention's peak
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #390 on: September 16, 2016, 04:08:12 pm »

If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #391 on: September 16, 2016, 04:12:51 pm »

If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Yes, there is a reason, why one generally should not look at crosstabs.

But should we also dismiss all the state polls that agree with the "trends" of LA Times? Roll Eyes
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #392 on: September 16, 2016, 06:35:18 pm »

If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Yes, there is a reason, why one generally should not look at crosstabs.

But should we also dismiss all the state polls that agree with the "trends" of LA Times? Roll Eyes

     Crosstabs can point to flaws in poll numbers, but I grimace at people reflexively looking at crosstabs to find faults. There's almost always weird stuff in there.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #393 on: September 17, 2016, 02:12:23 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.0%
Trump: 47.2% (-0.2)
Clinton: 41.2% (+0.2)

The free fall has stopped. Now it's time to see if there will be a correction starting next Monday.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #394 on: September 17, 2016, 03:58:51 am »

So far, so good Roll Eyes
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #395 on: September 17, 2016, 05:46:53 am »


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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #396 on: September 17, 2016, 08:47:42 am »
« Edited: September 17, 2016, 08:50:19 am by John Ewards »

Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #397 on: September 17, 2016, 08:50:37 am »

Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating Smiley
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #398 on: September 17, 2016, 09:14:02 am »


+6% leads = enough to celebrate

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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #399 on: September 17, 2016, 09:21:36 am »

Old Formula
Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 42% (+3)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 43% (+2)
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