USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (user search)
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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 84568 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2016, 04:14:03 AM »
BEAUTIFUL!

Clinton in low 40s is my perception of the race. And we don't even add 5-10% of Shy Trump voters. Laaaaaandslide Grin
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #26 on: September 01, 2016, 06:11:33 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 06:14:17 AM by LittleBigOctopus »
Quote from: lok1999 on September 01, 2016, 05:47:10 AM
Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them? Smiley



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think? Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #27 on: September 01, 2016, 08:53:34 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 09:01:10 AM by LittleBigOctopus »
Quote from: Seriously? on September 01, 2016, 08:35:03 AM
If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.
Yes, favs look delicious. It will probably show a really close race.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #28 on: September 01, 2016, 09:06:56 AM »
Nate Silver pratically "admits" that their model should have believed more to this pollster Smiley

He is also talking about red hacks = some readers Grin
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: September 02, 2016, 02:18:54 AM »
Sad
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #30 on: September 03, 2016, 07:34:53 AM »
Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2016, 09:15:46 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on September 06, 2016, 08:47:25 AM
Maybe we are seeing the effects of his wild immigration speech after the boost from last week?
Might be. There are similar trends in Ipsos and CVoter. We have to wait.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #32 on: September 07, 2016, 03:26:04 AM »
sh**t,  hope,  it's just a fluctuations Sad
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #33 on: September 07, 2016, 06:29:20 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on September 07, 2016, 06:19:48 PM
Quote from: LittleBigOctopus on September 07, 2016, 03:26:04 AM
sh**t,  hope,  it's just a fluctuations Sad

that's all these polls are, so you have nothing to worry about.
Are you kidding me? This poll has been most trustfull among all the polls in this election. On trends Wink

But it'd be nice, if CNN poll was right about the race Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #34 on: September 08, 2016, 07:58:25 AM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on September 08, 2016, 06:00:18 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on September 08, 2016, 05:42:39 AM
Splendid news. Hillary's numbers are rising faster that a teenager's dick while he is reading SI's swimsuit edition.

I admit, I giggled.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #35 on: September 11, 2016, 05:36:04 AM »
Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.

The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2016, 04:46:28 AM »
Deplorables!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: September 13, 2016, 06:22:19 AM »
It is a largest bump in LA Times polling history. We'll probably get other polls, confirming or not this, but at least it follows my gut feeling Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #38 on: September 14, 2016, 04:06:31 AM »
Quote from: Pandaguineapig on September 14, 2016, 02:26:22 AM
Quote from: Arch on September 14, 2016, 02:16:22 AM
Quote from: Seriously? on September 14, 2016, 02:15:23 AM
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Pepe will become a national symbol if trump becomes president
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2016, 03:39:22 AM »
Nice Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #40 on: September 16, 2016, 04:35:28 AM »
It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #41 on: September 16, 2016, 03:58:55 PM »
Quote from: John Ewards on September 16, 2016, 03:31:05 PM
Quote from: Little Big Adorable on September 16, 2016, 04:35:28 AM
It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.
No, 47.4% is his highest result, though he got the same numbers during the convention's peak
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #42 on: September 16, 2016, 04:12:51 PM »
Quote from: Wiz in Wis on September 16, 2016, 04:08:12 PM
If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Yes, there is a reason, why one generally should not look at crosstabs.

But should we also dismiss all the state polls that agree with the "trends" of LA Times? Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #43 on: September 17, 2016, 03:58:51 AM »
So far, so good Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #44 on: September 17, 2016, 08:50:37 AM »
Quote from: John Ewards on September 17, 2016, 08:47:42 AM
Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #45 on: September 17, 2016, 10:43:51 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2016, 10:51:30 AM by Little Big Adorable »
Quote from: John Ewards on September 17, 2016, 10:20:28 AM
he just fell by .4 percent, where 1 week ago he hadn't even started to surge.
Cry

Quote from: Left on September 17, 2016, 09:21:36 AM
Old Formula
Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 42% (+3)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 43% (+2)
Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #46 on: September 17, 2016, 11:30:44 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 17, 2016, 11:01:49 AM
This forum spends way too much energy on analyzing this garbage.
How come you didn't share you analysis in IA-Monmouth: Trump +8 thread? Huh

Or in FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 thread? Huh

Those are A pollsters Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #47 on: September 18, 2016, 03:29:42 AM »
Good news, but just might be lagging + noise. We'll need to wait 3-5 days to draw conclusions about the trend.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #48 on: October 26, 2016, 09:09:53 AM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on October 26, 2016, 09:05:24 AM
That is a big jump.  Did the Illinois guy get back in?
Not yeat, as I understood.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #49 on: October 26, 2016, 10:02:15 AM »
Quote from: chrisras on October 26, 2016, 10:01:14 AM
Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?
Trump's African American

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html
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