USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2

[Wells]

This new result will likely be a new equilibrium for the poll. We'll see probably another week of Trump prosperity unless something else changes (the one thing I can think of right now is the Newsweek cover). Anyway, the numbers:

Old Formula
Trump 52% (-4)
Clinton 37% (+4)

New Formula
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 40% (+3)

[Wells]

Old Formula
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 39% (+2)

New Formula
Trump 47% (-1)
Clinton 41% (+1)

The race send to be stabilizing around a mid-single digit Trump lead, which makes sense for a tossup race if you take into account the house effect.

[Wells]

Old Formula
Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 42% (+3)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 43% (+2)

[Wells]

Old Formula
Trump 51% (+5)
Clinton 40% (-2)

New Formula
Trump 48% (+3)
Clinton 42% (-1)

[Wells]

Old Formula Trump +6
Clinton 42% (+2)
Trump 48% (-3)

New Formula Trump +4
Clinton 43% (+1)
Trump 47% (-1)

One of the reasons for a huge Trump lead is a sudden lack of enthusiasm among Clinton supporters, who have generally been more enthusiastic than Trump supporters throughout the campaign. The good news (if you want Clinton to win) is that enthusiasm suddenly increased yesterday. It may be statistical noise, or it could be a sign of future trends. This should be something to keep an eye on as this poll continues to change. Changes in enthusiasm appear to affect the black vote more than anything else as both times Trump jumped and Clinton fell in the black vote, either enthusiasm for Trump shot up (like the first time) or Clinton enthusiasm fell (like this time).

[Wells]

Old Formula Clinton +2
Clinton 45% (+3)
Trump 43% (-5)

New Formula Tie
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 44% (-4)

Clinton supporters now lead in enthusiasm again and Trump falls with Black voters.

[Wells]

Old Formula Clinton +3
Clinton 45% (=)
Trump 42% (-1)

New Formula Clinton +1
Clinton 44% (=)
Trump 43% (-1)

[Wells]

Old Formula Clinton +8
Clinton 48% (+3)
Trump 40% (-2)

New Formula Clinton +4
Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump 42% (-1)

Clinton's gains are larger than yesterday's, as the two biggest swing demographics in this poll (young people and rich people), all turn to Clinton.

[Wells]

Old Formula Clinton +5
Clinton 46% (-2)
Trump 41% (+1)

New Formula Clinton +1
Clinton 44% (-2)
Trump 43% (+1)

The race seems to be settling again. Most of the change in these formulas in recent days has been statistical noise. The next big change should be coming right after the debates.

[Wells]

Old Formula Trump +17
Trump 53% (+5)
Clinton 36% (-7)

New Formula Trump +13
Trump 51% (+3)
Clinton 38% (-3)

Trump supporters have had a strong increase in enthusiasm (+0.9 to 84.1, Clinton supporters are at 83.3 enthusiasm, down 0.2). Young voters and rich voters are now back to Trump, and uneducated and male voters have swung hard away from Clinton. For some odd reason, black voters are having one of those pro-Trump swings again (due to enthusiasm, as I said before), but this doesn't mean we should discount the current trends.

[Wells]

Old Formula Trump +3
Trump 46% (-7)
Clinton 43% (+7)

New Formula Trump +4
Trump 46% (-5)
Clinton 42% (+4)

[Wells]

I'm switching entirely to the new formula after the first debate.

9/26 Trump +2
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 44% (+2)

[Wells]

9/27 Trump +5
Trump 48% (+2)
Clinton 43% (-1)

I'll wait a few days for post-debate analysis. Today could be the result of a pro-Clinton day rolling off the average (Trump gained .5 today, losing .8 last week). And I'd like to thank States Poll for pointing out why this bump may not necessarily be true, and correcting the LA Times by showing that Trump only has one African-American.

[Wells]

9/28 Trump +2
Trump 46% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+1)

[Wells]

Anyway, time for the formula! But first, some of Seriously?'s 2014 posts, to be fair:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=9758;sa=showPosts;start=2450

There are a few good ones.

9/29 Trump +8
Trump 47% (+1)
Clinton 39% (-5)

[Wells]

8/1 Trump +6
Trump 48%
Clinton 42%

[Wells]

8/2 Trump +4
Trump 47% (-1)
Clinton 43% (+1)

[Wells]

10/3 Trump +1
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+1)

[Wells]

10/4 Trump +2
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 44% (=)

[Wells]

10/4 Trump +2
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 44% (=)

Why do you keep posting fake numbers?

8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.

I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.

I'll try and come up with a new formula that takes into account the days dropping off.

[Wells]

10/5 Trump +5
Trump 47% (+1)
Clinton 42% (-2)

[Wells]

10/6 Clinton +2
Clinton 47% (+5)
Trump 45% (-2)

[Wells]

10/7 Trump +6
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-7)

Trump's numbers seem more stable, while Clinton's keep jumping around. It's probably a good sign for Trump, but there's still a month until the election and the most recent Trump controversy hasn't affected these numbers yet. I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm sure it will be interesting.

[Wells]

10/8
Clinton 44% (+4)
Trump 44% (-2)

Trump begins to collapse. Clinton's supporters' enthusiasm has shot up recently.

[Wells]

10/9
Trump 47% (+3)
Clinton 40% (-4)

As of last month I would have agreed with you. But over the past several weeks, this poll has not trended in a manner consistent with almost every other national poll (tracking or otherwise), so it's harder to justify that claim.

This is one of the problems I'm starting to have with this poll. But I won't stop doing this unless Clinton's up double digits and they still have Trump up or something like that.