Cook Report: Senate 2006

[zorkpolitics]

Democrats poised for modest gain or Republicans chance for major gains?

Democrats are looking at a maximum gain of 3 seats.   If they won the 3 Republican toss up seats, while retaining their own toss up seat.  But that may be their maximum opportunity since there are no weak Republican incumbents that are rated as lean seats to go for.   

On the other hand, if the Republicans defended their 3 toss ups, they have an opportunity to pick up an additional 8 seats: 7 lean Democratic and 1 Democrat toss up seats.
See :
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_senate_ratings_june10.pdf

Senate races are often driven by local candidates and local events, so we will probably have to wait another year before the picture becomes clearer.

[Moooooo]

He's a little off.

Stabenow is at least "likely Dem".  Against her two possible opponents she is polling right below 60%.  Game. Set. Match.

Maryland is likely Dem.  For some reason people are still being fooled, and teased by Ehrlich's 2002 win.

The VT race was over before it even began.  Senator Sanders, bank on it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

He has the Jeffords seat as a Toss-up?  That's wild.  A lot of these seats are hard to rate without knowing who is running.  Why is Washington rated Lean Dem and North Dakota likely Dem?  It seem to me both are Toss-ups if the Republicans get their best candidate, and Likely Dem if they don't.  Maybe the same is true with Michigan, but I'm not really sure who that "best candidate" would be there.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Also, have you seen his Gov ratings?  He has Blagojevich as Solid Dem, which I have trouble buying seeing as how his approval ratings are terrible.  And I think VA at least merits a "Lean GOP" right now.  And NY should DEFINITELY be "Lean Dem" if not "Likely Dem".   I think Cook REALLY dislikes projecting pick-ups early in the cycle, no matter how obvious they may be.

[Dave from Michigan]

Michigan should be soild democrat the republicans have no good candidates.

[TheresNoMoney]

I question quite a few of those. Burns, Talent, DeWine and even Ensign are beatable with the Democratic top candidates.

[bullmoose88]

Just be careful on VT.

If the GOP runs the right candidate, they could win it (after all, they hold the governorship, and until Jeffords jumped ship...a senate seat).

In all likelihood though, they won't run someone moderate enough...sanders wins.

[TheresNoMoney]

Besides Jeffords, Sanders is the most popular politician in Vermont.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

even Ensign are beatable with the Democratic top candidates.

I hope the candidate you're thinking of here isn't Oscar Goodman.  Of course, I'm not sure who else it would be.  Goodman has no chance, and really doesn't deserve one.  From what I can tell, he's one of the most despicable characters to hold public office.  He has recently taken a side job as a photographer for Playboy.  At least that's much more respectable than his former profession as attorney for mafia hit men.

And check out this recent news story:
     Las Vegas Review-Journal's Morrison writes that Mayor Oscar Goodman "took time out from his busy schedule Thursday to insult a room full of people who try to help the homeless." Goodman called the homeless advocates "'enablers' who, by feeding the homeless sandwiches and giving them water, 'enable them to remain homeless.'" Goodman "also said he was not optimistic about helping the homeless because of his personal experience with one homeless man who doesn't want any help. The man is known on the streets as Smiley. ... It's pretty obvious he is mentally ill." Morrison calls Goodman "the man with the big glass of gin surrounded by his own enablers (called city employees), who drive for him so he won't get a DUI" (6/20).

[Rococo4]

I question quite a few of those. Burns, Talent, DeWine and even Ensign are beatable with the Democratic top candidates.

I dont think Talent will lose, and as much as I dont like DeWine as a Republican, he is going to win in 2006 for sure.

[Ben.]

He's a little off.

Stabenow is at least "likely Dem".  Against her two possible opponents she is polling right below 60%.  Game. Set. Match.

Maryland is likely Dem.  For some reason people are still being fooled, and teased by Ehrlich's 2002 win.

The VT race was over before it even began.  Senator Sanders, bank on it.

I’d agree, the breakdown of the races don’t really fit, on the Republican side TN is “lean Republican” and the same is true IMHO of Lincoln Chafee’s senate seat where the GOP will only risk losing if Chafee is defeated or seriously damaged in a conservative primary challenge.

Pennsylvania, is a race I would agree with being classed as a toss-up with Santorum’s money and Casey’s broad popularity going head to head, at the moment I think Casey will win it, but its about the only really vulnerable Republican seat so it will get a lot of attention from the GOP as well as the DNC.

I think that the article underestimates how vulnerable Talent and DeWine both are and I would class both as lean republican as with the right candidates both races would be very competitive, however it remains to be seen weather a strong democratic candidate will emerge, if one doesn’t then I’d agree that both races move to the “likely republican column”.   

On the Democratic side I’d say that Nelson’s Florida Senate seat moves to the tossup category but the races in MI, NJ and NE are all very likely to return Democrats by healthy margins while VT is also very likely to return Sanders quite easily.

With the contest in both Washington and Maryland, it too early to tell so I’d say that both lean to the Democrats under natural circumstances so for the time being that’s where they belong.

The only other change I would suggest is moving Byrd to the Solid Dem column, there is simply no way he’ll lose that seat in a midterm election.

So that makes it…

Republican Toss-ups – 1
Lean Republican – 3
Likely Republican - 2
Solid Republican - 9 

Democratic Toss-ups – 2
Lean Democratic – 2
Likely Democratic – 5 (4 Dem, 1 Ind)
Solid Democratic - 9     

…Unless there are some retirements *Cough*Trent Lott*Cough* there could actually be very little movement in this elections.

[AuH2O]

Really, the only Republican seat in any kind of trouble is Santorum-- Chafee could lose the primary, but other than that he'll be fine. Ford can't win in TN and Talent faces no strong opponent in MO.

There are roughly seven Democratic seats in danger, of course led by MN, followed by FL, NE, NJ, WA, ND, MD.

So I don't think Cook is way off, just a few races I disagree with-- but I'm not sure what his methodology is. Until Hoeven makes a decision, ND is likely Dem... but once he declares, it's tossup/lean Dem.