FL-GQR: Clinton +5
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  FL-GQR: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: FL-GQR: Clinton +5  (Read 1102 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: July 15, 2016, 07:03:53 AM »

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/florida-playbook/2016/07/clinton-up-by-5-in-two-polls-the-trump-tebow-fumble-dispatches-from-corruption-ville-corrine-brown-d-race-baiter-state-wants-florida-mans-pizza-eating-pet-gator-215341

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-ebd0-dc24-ab55-fbf97c6b0001

In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of 800 likely voters

Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7

White
Clinton 35
Trump 50

Latino
Clinton 53
Trump 31

Black
Clinton 80
Trump 9
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 07:30:56 AM »

GQR is historically about a point or two more Democratic than reality so Clinton +3 or +4 is the state of affairs in FL
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RJEvans
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 07:33:09 AM »

GQR is historically about a point or two more Democratic than reality so Clinton +3 or +4 is the state of affairs in FL

Which seems about right of we take the average of all the polls.
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2016, 07:41:14 AM »

GQR is historically about a point or two more Democratic than reality so Clinton +3 or +4 is the state of affairs in FL

Which seems about right of we take the average of all the polls.

They're also a better pollster than NBC/WSJ, Q or any of the media polls because Stan Greenberg is a polling Jedi like Ann Selzer, Charles Franklin and the Field people in California
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Wells
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2016, 07:51:42 AM »

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. Sad

Cheesy
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2016, 08:00:40 AM »

It's to see a Flordia poll where they actually poll minority voters.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2016, 09:28:35 AM »

GQR is historically about a point or two more Democratic than reality so Clinton +3 or +4 is the state of affairs in FL

Which seems about right of we take the average of all the polls.

They're also a better pollster than NBC/WSJ, Q or any of the media polls because Stan Greenberg is a polling Jedi like Ann Selzer, Charles Franklin and the Field people in California

Having met Charles Franklin a couple times, thinking of him as a Jedi is very entertaining
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Seriously?
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2016, 09:46:30 AM »

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. Sad
Florida remains Florida when it comes to polling, It's all over the place. I'd like a chance to actually be able to sit down and look at the differing methodologies to see if it's something similar to the Republican primary tranche of polling done in the state where there were different assumptions made by the pollsters and a wide variation between the two camps. One got the race right at about Trump +20, the other had it closer.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2016, 09:48:41 AM »

FL is something between lean D and likely D this cycle. Probably likely D.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2016, 09:51:35 AM »

very reputable pollster - seems like Florida right now is about D+5. If you use Virginia as a bellweather, the state of the race is likely D+ 7-8
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2016, 09:53:58 AM »

very reputable pollster - seems like Florida right now is about D+5. If you use Virginia as a bellweather, the state of the race is likely D+ 7-8

If the Trumpster loses FL by five points, that would be the largest margin for this state in a long time. But could actually happen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2016, 10:17:20 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 10:39:59 AM by pbrower2a »

The Q does not push voters. It would rather get low figures for both nominees than get something above 45 for either at this stage.

But even with Q polls, Donald Trump still ends up with a maximum of 40-42% in swing states. That is close to his ceiling.

Just look at one pattern: non-college white voters apparently go about 68-20 for Donald Trump. That is strong. But college-educated whites split about 50-50; Asians, Latinos, and blacks all go strongly against Donald Trump.

Question: if you are a Republican, would you rather have a 68-20 lead among under-educated white people or among educated white people? Even if it is a smaller demographic, I'd rather have the educated whites. Educated white people can convince under-educated white people and can assuage concerns of minorities. Under-educated white people can convince only each other. They don't get much respect from ethnic or racial minorities.  If anything, educated white voters might be able to make cogent reasons for not voting for Donald Trump -- and convince erstwhile Trump supporters that he will disappoint them.* Donald Trump, by doing so badly among educated white people by the standard of any Republican since Goldwater, practically ensures that such support as he now gets is all that he gets.  

*My line?   Some of the first decisions by Donald Trump will be which promises must he must break.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2016, 10:19:15 AM »

Sexy poll, though it just goes to show that polling is volatile right now, and we shouldn't jump to too many conclusions just yet.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2016, 11:09:53 AM »

Question: if you are a Republican, would you rather have a 68-20 lead among under-educated white people or among educated white people? Even if it is a smaller demographic, I'd rather have the educated whites. Educated white people can convince under-educated white people and can assuage concerns of minorities. Under-educated white people can convince only each other. They don't get much respect from ethnic or racial minorities.  If anything, educated white voters might be able to make cogent reasons for not voting for Donald Trump -- and convince erstwhile Trump supporters that he will disappoint them.* Donald Trump, by doing so badly among educated white people by the standard of any Republican since Goldwater, practically ensures that such support as he now gets is all that he gets.  

Well, in Florida, this cycle looks to be the first time the state's white electorate was majority college educated, which represents a rapid decline in non-college white voters nationwide. Given that, I'd rather have college-educated whites.

I'm very interested in how much this coalition realignment sticks past this election. Republicans have already essentially forfeited the fastest growing demographics (non-whites), and now they seem to have traded the fastest growing portion of the white electorate (college educated) for the fastest shrinking part (not college educated). Strategically, this is terrible if it even partially sticks. It's like abandoning the RMS Carpathia for the RMS Titanic. The only benefit I see is that it may allow them to hold the House longer due to college-educated whites being more geographically compacted.
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2016, 12:29:50 PM »



Question: if you are a Republican, would you rather have a 68-20 lead among under-educated white people or among educated white people? Even if it is a smaller demographic, I'd rather have the educated whites. Educated white people can convince under-educated white people and can assuage concerns of minorities. Under-educated white people can convince only each other. They don't get much respect from ethnic or racial minorities.  If anything, educated white voters might be able to make cogent reasons for not voting for Donald Trump -- and convince erstwhile Trump supporters that he will disappoint them.* Donald Trump, by doing so badly among educated white people by the standard of any Republican since Goldwater, practically ensures that such support as he now gets is all that he gets.  

*My line?   Some of the first decisions by Donald Trump will be which promises must he must break.

Gee, you must be a very educated man.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2016, 04:07:32 PM »

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. Sad

lol
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2016, 07:45:17 PM »



Question: if you are a Republican, would you rather have a 68-20 lead among under-educated white people or among educated white people? Even if it is a smaller demographic, I'd rather have the educated whites. Educated white people can convince under-educated white people and can assuage concerns of minorities. Under-educated white people can convince only each other. They don't get much respect from ethnic or racial minorities.  If anything, educated white voters might be able to make cogent reasons for not voting for Donald Trump -- and convince erstwhile Trump supporters that he will disappoint them.* Donald Trump, by doing so badly among educated white people by the standard of any Republican since Goldwater, practically ensures that such support as he now gets is all that he gets.  

*My line?   Some of the first decisions by Donald Trump will be which promises must he must break.

Gee, you must be a very educated man.

I know how well-educated people behave and how strong their verbal skills are. Well-educated people might convince others; ill-educated people generally don't unless of personal experience. That's why the dumb retail clerks sell stuff that needs little explaining and the smart ones end up selling big-ticket items. 

Remember All in the Family? Archie Bunker tried to discuss complicated realities and made a fool of himself while trying to do so. It was good for laughs even if Archie (Carroll O'Connor) was playing it as straight as he could. The show would not have worked had such not been the usual experience of people of the time.
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jwhueting
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« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2016, 04:02:08 AM »



Question: if you are a Republican, would you rather have a 68-20 lead among under-educated white people or among educated white people? Even if it is a smaller demographic, I'd rather have the educated whites. Educated white people can convince under-educated white people and can assuage concerns of minorities. Under-educated white people can convince only each other. They don't get much respect from ethnic or racial minorities.  If anything, educated white voters might be able to make cogent reasons for not voting for Donald Trump -- and convince erstwhile Trump supporters that he will disappoint them.* Donald Trump, by doing so badly among educated white people by the standard of any Republican since Goldwater, practically ensures that such support as he now gets is all that he gets.  

*My line?   Some of the first decisions by Donald Trump will be which promises must he must break.

Gee, you must be a very educated man.

I know how well-educated people behave and how strong their verbal skills are. Well-educated people might convince others; ill-educated people generally don't unless of personal experience. That's why the dumb retail clerks sell stuff that needs little explaining and the smart ones end up selling big-ticket items. 

Remember All in the Family? Archie Bunker tried to discuss complicated realities and made a fool of himself while trying to do so. It was good for laughs even if Archie (Carroll O'Connor) was playing it as straight as he could. The show would not have worked had such not been the usual experience of people of the time.

Ok, I understand your point. But it should be the job of politicians to connect with that part of the electorate. I think it's dangerous to look down upon the 'low educated' part of the country. I personally always try to understand their worries and try to not judge them.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2016, 10:50:23 AM »



Question: if you are a Republican, would you rather have a 68-20 lead among under-educated white people or among educated white people? Even if it is a smaller demographic, I'd rather have the educated whites. Educated white people can convince under-educated white people and can assuage concerns of minorities. Under-educated white people can convince only each other. They don't get much respect from ethnic or racial minorities.  If anything, educated white voters might be able to make cogent reasons for not voting for Donald Trump -- and convince erstwhile Trump supporters that he will disappoint them.* Donald Trump, by doing so badly among educated white people by the standard of any Republican since Goldwater, practically ensures that such support as he now gets is all that he gets.  

*My line?   Some of the first decisions by Donald Trump will be which promises must he must break.

Gee, you must be a very educated man.

I know how well-educated people behave and how strong their verbal skills are. Well-educated people might convince others; ill-educated people generally don't unless of personal experience. That's why the dumb retail clerks sell stuff that needs little explaining and the smart ones end up selling big-ticket items. 

Remember All in the Family? Archie Bunker tried to discuss complicated realities and made a fool of himself while trying to do so. It was good for laughs even if Archie (Carroll O'Connor) was playing it as straight as he could. The show would not have worked had such not been the usual experience of people of the time.

Ok, I understand your point. But it should be the job of politicians to connect with that part of the electorate. I think it's dangerous to look down upon the 'low educated' part of the country. I personally always try to understand their worries and try to not judge them.

Right-wing American politicians exploit the ignorance, superstition, and intellectual shallowness of under-educated white people, using them to vote their resentments about being left out of the "American Dream" or whatever is left of it.

There's little wrong with any traditionally-oppressed group of Americans that more economic opportunity (usually connected to educational achievement) can't solve. Yes, blacks and Hispanics have been oppressed. Guess what? So have been poor white people! Middle-class blacks, Hispanics, and Asians are not oppressed. At least not now, even if they have memories of oppression.

It's the ignorance, superstition, and intellectual shallowness that must go before any oppressed people gets a chance. That political elites foster ignorance, superstition, and intellectual shallowness for questionable ends (the enrichment and pampering of elites) is itself unconscionable. 
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