NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA

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BEAUTIFUL!!! Trump is getting destroyed in states where EDUCATEDS and BLACKS and HISPANICS get to vote!

EDUCATEDS and BLACKS and HISPANICS get to vote in all 50 states and DC last time I checked.

These seem favorable to Clinton and outpacing how she should do in these states assuming the same methodology was used in the Clinton +5/Clinton +3 McClatchy/Marist national poll released this week.

It's just odd to me how Florida can be so all over the place depending on who polls it. It will be interesting to drill into the internals to figure out what differing assumptions these pollsters are using. Not that one is more "correct" than the other at this point, but modeling may explain the vast differences.

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NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.

I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.

I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.

Not really, with 3rd party options she is +5. I gather that's where her campaign thinks it is after the state field director went on a twitter rant to counter-act the Q poll results.

I doubt Florida is +5 in a Clinton +5 race. Obama beat Romney there by 1 point in a D+4 race nationally. Will Hillary actually outperform Obama by 3 points?

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NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.

I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.

I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.

Not really, with 3rd party options she is +5. I gather that's where her campaign thinks it is after the state field director went on a twitter rant to counter-act the Q poll results.

I doubt Florida is +5 in a Clinton +5 race. Obama beat Romney there by 1 point in a D+4 race nationally. Will Hillary actually outperform Obama by 3 points?

We also didn't think NC would vote more Dem than IA or OH did we? Dynamics have changed since 2012 and to your specific question I think Hillary's a better fit for FL than Obama ever was.

Have they changed? Scott still got reelected governor to a similar R+1 margin in both 2010 and 2014. (Beating the RCP average by ~1.7%). If we know of anything with Florida, the polls vacillate wildly.

I'd be shocked to see Florida shift to the national average by 3%. My guess is this is roughly a D+8 D+6 sample to get to Hillary +5. Obama won by 1% with a D+2 exit poll in 2012.

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The state-level polling numbers all look about right (North Carolina is maybe too favorable for Democrats, but I might just be underestimating the pace of demographic change or Trump's toxicity in certain areas or something). I'm very encouraged by the poll showing Rubio+3 even as Clinton+5 (Burr+7 even as Clinton+6 is even more impressive); polling from all outfits continues to underscore that Republican congressional incumbents are running significantly ahead of Trump, which augurs well both for the elections this year and for future intraparty battles generally. People want Republicanism more than they want Trumpism.

Incumbents have an inherent advantage regardless of party affiliation. Even if people hate Congress, they don't necessarily hate their Congressmen or Senators. Comparing Trump to an incumbent R is like comparing apples to oranges. Plenty of states will have an incumbent D take their incumbent Senate seat but vote R for President and vice versa.

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Here are the links to the actual internals.

Interestingly, some states significantly trend Trump amongst "certain to vote" while others are a wash, so who knows what happens in a shift from RV to LV.

Colorado: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/COpolls/CO160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Colorado%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1

Florida: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1

North Carolina http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1

Virginia http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/VAPolls/VA160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Virginia%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1